Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / RICK / earnings

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RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc. (RICK) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.8% Move

$28.33 +0.46% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.30

RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc. (RICK) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $216.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.30 (-0.11%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 17.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

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Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RICK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY RICK SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 67% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 63.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 13 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$26.07-1.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$25.67+5.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$27.16+4.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$28.33-0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (47) → D+ (55)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the RICK Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, RICK faces multiple-compression risk if 20.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($27.87) or 200D SMA ($25.79) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($27.95) toward Bear Floor ($21.80).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RICK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “RICK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 55%NO 45%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 29, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.8% Swing Band

±$1.93 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

RICK Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 55/100

Trailing EPS: $1.42 • YoY Revenue Growth: -5.5%

Model Bullish Setup (55/100)Model Risk Weight (45/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-09-30	$279.4M	$10.8M	$49.4M	52%
FY 2024	2024-09-30	$295.6M	$3.0M	$55.9M	52%
FY 2023	2023-09-30	$293.8M	$29.1M	$59.1M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RICK)

✓Walkthrough of RICK's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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RICK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.23%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $28.39H $28.47L $27.82C $28.33VOL 36.0K

RES: $35.71SUP: $25.20SMA50: $27.87SMA200: $25.79

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RICK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RICK Butterfly Map → + Track RICK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

13.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -5.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RICK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RICK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RICK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RICK)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #549 of 1011 ⚔️ JACK vs RICK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (RICK vs. JACK, RRGB, PLAY, PTLO)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc. (RICK) ranks #549 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #683 by equity capitalization ($216.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PTLO leads on earnings valuation at 17.9x trailing P/E, while RRGB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.7% ROIC and — gross margin. RRGB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 57/100 (D+) compared with RICK at 55/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
RICK ACTIVE RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc.	D+	55/100	20.0x	—	5.6%	+0.46%	$216.6M	Benchmark Subject
JACK Jack In The Box Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	-35.0%	+9.40%	$249.9M	/jack-vs-rick →
RRGB Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc.	D+	57/100	—	—	5.7%	+3.78%	$176.4M	/rrgb-vs-rick →
PLAY Dave & Buster's Entertainment Inc.	D-	42/100	—	85.7%	4.3%	+5.45%	$283.2M	/play-vs-rick →
PTLO Portillo's Inc. (Class A)	D	46/100	17.9x	—	4.9%	+10.96%	$376.7M	/ptlo-vs-rick →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0000935419

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc. (RICK) reported GAAP revenue of $279.4M (-5.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $295.6M , and -4.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $10.8M, operating cash flow of $49.4M, and free cash flow of $49.4M (-11.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, RICK closed FY2025 with $590.3M in total assets against $222.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.44, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$279.4M	$10.8M	$49.4M	$49.4M	$590.3M	$222.0M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$295.6M	$3.0M	$55.9M	$55.9M	$586.2M	$217.7M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$293.8M	$29.1M	$59.1M	$59.1M	—	—

3. RICK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RICK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: RICK) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $28.33 (+0.46% 1D, market cap $216.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, RICK ranks #549 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RICK compare to JACK and RRGB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), RICK carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.6%. By comparison, JACK (Jack In The Box Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $249.9M) and RRGB (Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 5.7%, cap $176.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PTLO leads on earnings multiple (17.9x) while RRGB leads on capital efficiency (5.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RICK?

Per RICK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0000935419), RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc. generated $279.4M in revenue (-5.5% YoY), $10.8M in net income, and $49.4M in free cash flow against $590.3M in total assets and $222.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RICK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RICK last traded at $28.33 (+0.46% on volume of 29,232 shares), positioning the stock +1.65% above its 50-day simple moving average ($27.87) and +9.85% above its 200-day simple moving average ($25.79). Across its 52-week range of $20.76 to $32.00, RICK sits at the 67.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.8% ($26.40 to $30.26).

RICK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is RICK's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc. (RICK)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 29, 2026.

How much is RICK stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±6.8% event move for RICK, spanning a range between $26.4 and $30.26.

Direct Sub-Reports: RICK RQD Cockpit RICK 12M Forecast RICK Earnings & Move RICK Dividends & DRIP RICK Insiders & 13F RICK Whale Options RICK Profit Sankey RICK News & Why