Post Holdings Inc. (POST) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.5% realized swing band)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 22% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 66.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 14 pts from forensic ceiling
Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, POST faces multiple-compression risk if 10.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 26.2% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($78.47) or 200D SMA ($92.06) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($81.28) toward Bear Floor ($63.40).
Post Holdings Inc. (POST) advanced +1.71% to $81.65, trading at 22% of its 52-week range ($71.45 – $117.28). Stretched risk/reward at 11x P/E (6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Is CALM a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. on Value Don’t Lie’s Substack. Since the thesis was published on August 25th, CALM shares have pulled back as excess egg supply pressu
A company that generates cash isn’t automatically a winner. Some businesses stockpile cash but fail to reinvest wisely, limiting their ability to expand.
Evercore ISI Group analyst David Palmer maintains Post Holdings (NYSE:POST) with a Outperform and lowers the price target from $121 to $115.
Post Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:POST), a consumer packaged goods holding company, today announced it will hold a conference call on Friday, November 20, 2026 at 9:00 a.m. ET to discuss financial results for the fourth quarter
POST is seeing e-commerce outpace other pet food channels as it pursues brand relaunches, premium private-label growth and cost savings.
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +3.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on POST today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for POST. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Post Holdings Inc. (POST) ranks #66 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #45 by equity capitalization ($3.59B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, INGR leads on earnings valuation at 8.3x trailing P/E, while MZTI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.9% ROIC and 23.9% gross margin. MZTI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with POST at 57/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POST
ACTIVE
Post Holdings Inc. | D+ | 57/100 | 10.7x | 28.7% | 5.9% | +1.71% | $3.59B | Benchmark Subject |
| FRPT Freshpet Inc. | C | 64/100 | 22.8x | 40.8% | 6.4% | +1.63% | $3.18B | /frpt-vs-post → |
| MZTI The Marzetti Company | B+ | 76/100 | 17.8x | 23.9% | 20.9% | +0.66% | $2.98B | /mzti-vs-post → |
| INGR Ingredion Incorporated | C | 63/100 | 8.3x | 25.3% | 16.1% | +1.42% | $6.03B | /ingr-vs-post → |
| CPB The Campbell's Company | C | 62/100 | 10.4x | 30.4% | 10.8% | +1.99% | $6.26B | /cpb-vs-post → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Post Holdings Inc. (POST) reported GAAP revenue of $8.16B (+3.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.92B , and +16.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $335.7M, operating cash flow of $998.3M, and free cash flow of $998.3M (+7.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, POST closed FY2025 with $12.98B in total assets against $7.46B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.38, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-09-30 | $8.16B | $335.7M | $998.3M | $998.3M | $12.98B | $7.46B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-09-30 | $7.92B | $366.7M | $931.7M | $931.7M | $12.82B | $6.94B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-09-30 | $6.99B | $301.3M | $750.3M | $750.3M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-01, Post Holdings Inc. (NYSE: POST) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $81.65 (+1.71% 1D, market cap $3.59B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, POST ranks #66 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), POST carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.7x, gross margin of 28.7%, and ROIC of 5.9%. By comparison, FRPT (Freshpet Inc.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 22.8x, ROIC 6.4%, cap $3.18B) and MZTI (The Marzetti Company) posts a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 17.8x, ROIC 20.9%, cap $2.98B). Among the 5-stock peer group, INGR leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while MZTI leads on capital efficiency (20.9% ROIC).
Per POST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001530950), Post Holdings Inc. generated $8.16B in revenue (+3.0% YoY), $335.7M in net income, and $998.3M in free cash flow against $12.98B in total assets and $7.46B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
POST last traded at $81.65 (+1.71% on volume of 636,296 shares), positioning the stock +4.05% above its 50-day simple moving average ($78.47) and -11.31% below its 200-day simple moving average ($92.06). Across its 52-week range of $71.45 to $117.28, POST sits at the 22.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.5% ($77.16 to $86.14).
Why POST Stock advanced +1.71% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 11x P/E (6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.