Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / POST / earnings

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Post Holdings Inc. (POST) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5.5% Move

$81.65 +1.71% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $81.75

Post Holdings Inc. (POST) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.59B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $81.75 (+0.12%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 12.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for POST)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY POST SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 22% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 66.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 14 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$74.82+5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$78.53+2.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$80.56+1.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$81.65-0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the POST Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, POST faces multiple-compression risk if 10.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 26.2% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($78.47) or 200D SMA ($92.06) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($81.28) toward Bear Floor ($63.40).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $POST• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “POST Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 29, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±5.5% Swing Band

±$4.49 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

POST Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 57/100

Trailing EPS: $7.64 • YoY Revenue Growth: 3%

Model Bullish Setup (57/100)Model Risk Weight (43/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-09-30	$8.16B	$335.7M	$998.3M	28.7%
FY 2024	2024-09-30	$7.92B	$366.7M	$931.7M	29.1%
FY 2023	2023-09-30	$6.99B	$301.3M	$750.3M	28.7%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring POST)

✓Walkthrough of POST's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

POST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.05%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $83.77H $84.12L $81.65C $81.65VOL 552.5K

RES: $79.40SUP: $69.15SMA50: $78.47SMA200: $92.06

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

POST Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 POST Butterfly Map → + Track POST →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

0.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on POST today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for POST. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for POST today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (POST)

Consumer Staples Rank #66 of 146 ⚔️ FRPT vs POST Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (POST vs. FRPT, MZTI, INGR, CPB)

Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Post Holdings Inc. (POST) ranks #66 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #45 by equity capitalization ($3.59B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, INGR leads on earnings valuation at 8.3x trailing P/E, while MZTI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.9% ROIC and 23.9% gross margin. MZTI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with POST at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
POST ACTIVE Post Holdings Inc.	D+	57/100	10.7x	28.7%	5.9%	+1.71%	$3.59B	Benchmark Subject
FRPT Freshpet Inc.	C	64/100	22.8x	40.8%	6.4%	+1.63%	$3.18B	/frpt-vs-post →
MZTI The Marzetti Company	B+	76/100	17.8x	23.9%	20.9%	+0.66%	$2.98B	/mzti-vs-post →
INGR Ingredion Incorporated	C	63/100	8.3x	25.3%	16.1%	+1.42%	$6.03B	/ingr-vs-post →
CPB The Campbell's Company	C	62/100	10.4x	30.4%	10.8%	+1.99%	$6.26B	/cpb-vs-post →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001530950

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Post Holdings Inc. (POST) reported GAAP revenue of $8.16B (+3.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.92B , and +16.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $335.7M, operating cash flow of $998.3M, and free cash flow of $998.3M (+7.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, POST closed FY2025 with $12.98B in total assets against $7.46B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.38, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$8.16B	$335.7M	$998.3M	$998.3M	$12.98B	$7.46B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$7.92B	$366.7M	$931.7M	$931.7M	$12.82B	$6.94B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$6.99B	$301.3M	$750.3M	$750.3M	—	—

3. POST Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is POST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Post Holdings Inc. (NYSE: POST) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $81.65 (+1.71% 1D, market cap $3.59B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, POST ranks #66 in composite RQD confidence.

How does POST compare to FRPT and MZTI in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), POST carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.7x, gross margin of 28.7%, and ROIC of 5.9%. By comparison, FRPT (Freshpet Inc.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 22.8x, ROIC 6.4%, cap $3.18B) and MZTI (The Marzetti Company) posts a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 17.8x, ROIC 20.9%, cap $2.98B). Among the 5-stock peer group, INGR leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while MZTI leads on capital efficiency (20.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for POST?

Per POST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001530950), Post Holdings Inc. generated $8.16B in revenue (+3.0% YoY), $335.7M in net income, and $998.3M in free cash flow against $12.98B in total assets and $7.46B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is POST trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

POST last traded at $81.65 (+1.71% on volume of 636,296 shares), positioning the stock +4.05% above its 50-day simple moving average ($78.47) and -11.31% below its 200-day simple moving average ($92.06). Across its 52-week range of $71.45 to $117.28, POST sits at the 22.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.5% ($77.16 to $86.14).

POST Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is POST's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Post Holdings Inc. (POST)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 29, 2026.

How much is POST stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±5.5% event move for POST, spanning a range between $77.16 and $86.14.

Direct Sub-Reports: POST RQD Cockpit POST 12M Forecast POST Earnings & Move POST Dividends & DRIP POST Insiders & 13F POST Whale Options POST Profit Sankey POST News & Why