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Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A) (PGY) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$20.81 +1.66% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.92

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A) (PGY) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 79/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 79/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.0% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $1.74B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.92 (+0.54%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 17.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 79/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 9% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 71.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PGY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (79/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY PGY SCORES 79/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 17.8% FCF Margin ($224.7M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 7 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$18.22-5.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$17.23+10.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B+$19.08+9.1% Next Q

Current

Grade B+$20.81+8.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (71) → B+ (79)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PGY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 79/100 (B+) score, PGY faces multiple-compression risk if 21.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($19.75) or 200D SMA ($16.48) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($22.78) toward Bear Floor ($17.06).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PGY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “PGY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 79%NO 21%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

PGY Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (PGY)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on PGY. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (PGY Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

PGY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +49.82%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $20.35H $20.81L $18.54C $20.81VOL 2.41M

RES: $27.37SUP: $16.53SMA50: $19.75SMA200: $16.48

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PGY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PGY Butterfly Map → + Track PGY →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +25.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PGY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PGY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PGY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PGY)

Financials Rank #11 of 1096 ⚔️ WLTH vs PGY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (PGY vs. WLTH, TRIN, HAPN, ATLC)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A) (PGY) ranks #11 by composite RQD confidence (79/100, grade B+) and #454 by equity capitalization ($1.74B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ATLC leads on earnings valuation at 12.3x trailing P/E, while PGY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. PGY currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 79/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
PGY ACTIVE Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A)	B+	79/100	21.3x	—	85.0%	+1.66%	$1.74B	Benchmark Subject
WLTH Wealthfront Corporation	D+	56/100	—	—	-6.8%	+1.54%	$1.65B	/wlth-vs-pgy →
TRIN Trinity Capital Inc.	D-	40/100	—	—	—	+0.88%	$1.63B	/trin-vs-pgy →
HAPN Happen Inc.	D+	56/100	13.6x	—	9.0%	+11.86%	$1.85B	/hapn-vs-pgy →
ATLC Atlanticus Holdings Corporation	C+	68/100	12.3x	—	19.8%	+7.10%	$1.49B	/atlc-vs-pgy →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001883085

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A) (PGY) reported GAAP revenue of $1.26B (+25.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.00B , and +63.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $81.4M, operating cash flow of $238.6M, and free cash flow of $224.7M (+648.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, PGY closed FY2025 with $1.55B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.26B	$81.4M	$238.6M	$224.7M	$1.55B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.00B	-$401.4M	$47.8M	$30.0M	$1.29B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$772.8M	-$128.4M	-$21.7M	-$21.7M	—	—

3. PGY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PGY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A) (NASDAQ: PGY) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 79/100 at a spot price of $20.81 (+1.66% 1D, market cap $1.74B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, PGY ranks #11 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PGY compare to WLTH and TRIN in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), PGY carries a Roarable B+ (79/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, WLTH (Wealthfront Corporation) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -6.8%, cap $1.65B) and TRIN (Trinity Capital Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.63B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ATLC leads on earnings multiple (12.3x) while PGY leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PGY?

Per PGY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001883085), Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (Class A) generated $1.26B in revenue (+25.6% YoY), $81.4M in net income, and $224.7M in free cash flow against $1.55B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PGY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PGY last traded at $20.81 (+1.66% on volume of 3,334,910 shares), positioning the stock +5.37% above its 50-day simple moving average ($19.75) and +26.27% above its 200-day simple moving average ($16.48). Across its 52-week range of $10.40 to $29.75, PGY sits at the 53.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($18.21 to $23.41).

PGY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are PGY insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies PGY leadership and institutional positioning as: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION.

Direct Sub-Reports: PGY RQD Cockpit PGY 12M Forecast PGY Earnings & Move PGY Dividends & DRIP PGY Insiders & 13F PGY Whale Options PGY Profit Sankey PGY News & Why