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PagerDuty Inc. (PD) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Is PD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, PagerDuty Inc. (NYSE: PD) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $17.38 (-3.17% 1D, market cap $1.37B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, PD ranks #372 in composite RQD confidence.

Q: How does PD compare to ALKT and GTM in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), PD carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.9x, gross margin of 84.9%, and ROIC of 6.8%. By comparison, ALKT (Alkami Technology Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -14.2%, cap $1.36B) and GTM (ZoomInfo Technologies Inc) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 10.5x, ROIC 6.7%, cap $1.30B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PD leads on earnings multiple (7.9x) while RDVT leads on capital efficiency (16.1% ROIC).

Q: What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PD?

Per PD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001568100), PagerDuty Inc. generated $492.5M in revenue (+5.4% YoY), $172.7M in net income, and $111.9M in free cash flow against $990.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Q: Where is PD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PD last traded at $17.38 (-3.17% on volume of 1,513,825 shares), positioning the stock +15.02% above its 50-day simple moving average ($15.11) and +71.40% above its 200-day simple moving average ($10.14). Across its 52-week range of $5.70 to $18.06, PD sits at the 94.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.6% ($16.06 to $18.70).

Q: What is PD's 12-month stock price target?

PagerDuty Inc. (PD) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $16.91 (-2.7% from $17.38), with a bull-case target of $19.95 and a bear-case floor of $13.19.

Q: Is PD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates PD D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 52/100.

$17.38 -3.17% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.25

PagerDuty Inc. (PD) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.37B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.25 (-0.76%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 22.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY PD SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (33% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.43 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 1.2% operating margin leave 14 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$16.16+0% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$16.16+8.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$17.49-0.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$17.38-1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (44) → D+ (52)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a PD Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While PD currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($15.11) and Max Pain ($18.25) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $19.95.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PD• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “PD Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your PD Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $17.38: 575.4 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $13.19

$7,589

$-2,411 (-24.1%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $16.91

$9,730

$-270 (-2.7%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $19.95

$11,479

+$1,479 (+14.8%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$18	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$19	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$15	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring PD)

✓Walkthrough of PD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

PD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +161.35%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $17.34H $17.38L $16.68C $17.38VOL 1.38M

RES: $18.20SUP: $16.66SMA50: $15.11SMA200: $10.14

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PD Butterfly Map → + Track PD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-5.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PD)

Technology Rank #372 of 714 ⚔️ ALKT vs PD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (PD vs. ALKT, GTM, RDVT, BBAI)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, PagerDuty Inc. (PD) ranks #372 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #330 by equity capitalization ($1.37B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PD leads on earnings valuation at 7.9x trailing P/E, while RDVT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.1% ROIC and — gross margin. GTM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with PD at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
PD ACTIVE PagerDuty Inc.	D+	52/100	7.9x	84.9%	6.8%	-3.17%	$1.37B	Benchmark Subject
ALKT Alkami Technology Inc.	D-	35/100	—	57.8%	-14.2%	-18.29%	$1.36B	/alkt-vs-pd →
GTM ZoomInfo Technologies Inc	C	64/100	10.5x	84.0%	6.7%	+1.13%	$1.30B	/gtm-vs-pd →
RDVT Red Violet Inc.	C-	59/100	98.2x	—	16.1%	-2.35%	$1.29B	/rdvt-vs-pd →
BBAI BigBear.ai Inc.	E	28/100	—	22.3%	-27.5%	+8.54%	$1.29B	/bbai-vs-pd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-31 • CIK 0001568100

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31), PagerDuty Inc. (PD) reported GAAP revenue of $492.5M (+5.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $467.5M , and +14.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $172.7M, operating cash flow of $114.9M, and free cash flow of $111.9M (-2.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, PD closed FY2025 with $990.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.43, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-01-31	$492.5M	$172.7M	$114.9M	$111.9M	$990.5M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2025-01-31	$467.5M	-$43.5M	$117.9M	$115.1M	$927.3M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2024-01-31	$430.7M	-$77.4M	$72.0M	$72.0M	—	—

3. PD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, PagerDuty Inc. (NYSE: PD) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $17.38 (-3.17% 1D, market cap $1.37B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, PD ranks #372 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PD compare to ALKT and GTM in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), PD carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.9x, gross margin of 84.9%, and ROIC of 6.8%. By comparison, ALKT (Alkami Technology Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -14.2%, cap $1.36B) and GTM (ZoomInfo Technologies Inc) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 10.5x, ROIC 6.7%, cap $1.30B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PD leads on earnings multiple (7.9x) while RDVT leads on capital efficiency (16.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PD?

Per PD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001568100), PagerDuty Inc. generated $492.5M in revenue (+5.4% YoY), $172.7M in net income, and $111.9M in free cash flow against $990.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PD last traded at $17.38 (-3.17% on volume of 1,513,825 shares), positioning the stock +15.02% above its 50-day simple moving average ($15.11) and +71.40% above its 200-day simple moving average ($10.14). Across its 52-week range of $5.70 to $18.06, PD sits at the 94.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.6% ($16.06 to $18.70).

PD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is PD's 12-month stock price target?

PagerDuty Inc. (PD) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $16.91 (-2.7% from $17.38), with a bull-case target of $19.95 and a bear-case floor of $13.19.