Stock Ratings / Energy / PARR / earnings

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Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$73.31 -0.65% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $73.40

Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 72/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 20% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 72/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.7% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $3.67B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $73.40 (+0.12%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 72/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.7% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PARR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (72/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY PARR SCORES 72/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4% FCF Margin ($296.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade A-$81.89+1.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$83.42-7.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B+$77.15-5% Next Q

Current

Grade B$73.31+7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: A- (80) → B (72)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PARR Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 72/100 (B) score, PARR faces multiple-compression risk if 9.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($81.35) or 200D SMA ($64.19) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($77.93) toward Bear Floor ($60.11).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PARR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “PARR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 72%NO 28%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$9.16 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

PARR Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 72/100

Trailing EPS: $7.37 • YoY Revenue Growth: -6.4%

Model Bullish Setup (72/100)Model Risk Weight (28/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$7.46B	$369.4M	$296.5M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$7.97B	-$33.3M	-$51.8M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$8.23B	$728.6M	$579.2M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating PARR & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on PARR
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

PARR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +11.63%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN

2026-10-30O $73.85H $76.46L $73.31C $73.31VOL 706.3K

RES: $92.79SUP: $81.03SMA50: $81.35SMA200: $64.19

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PARR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PARR Butterfly Map → + Track PARR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-1.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -6.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PARR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PARR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PARR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PARR)

Energy Rank #28 of 211 ⚔️ BTE vs PARR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (PARR vs. BTE, CPK, HESM, HP)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR) ranks #28 by composite RQD confidence (72/100, grade B) and #102 by equity capitalization ($3.67B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PARR leads on earnings valuation at 9.9x trailing P/E, while PARR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.8% ROIC and — gross margin. PARR currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 72/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
PARR ACTIVE Par Pacific Holdings Inc.	B	72/100	9.9x	—	19.8%	-0.65%	$3.67B	Benchmark Subject
BTE Baytex Energy Corp	B-	71/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-1.65%	$3.81B	/bte-vs-parr →
CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation	D+	58/100	23.3x	—	6.9%	+1.39%	$3.27B	/cpk-vs-parr →
HESM Hess Midstream LP Class A Representing Limited Partner Interests	D+	54/100	11.7x	—	19.1%	+1.70%	$4.14B	/hesm-vs-parr →
HP Helmerich & Payne Inc.	C	62/100	—	—	0.1%	-0.55%	$4.16B	/hp-vs-parr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000821483

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR) reported GAAP revenue of $7.46B (-6.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.97B , and -9.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $369.4M, operating cash flow of $445.3M, and free cash flow of $296.5M (+672.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, PARR closed FY2025 with $3.83B in total assets against $797.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.78, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$7.46B	$369.4M	$445.3M	$296.5M	$3.83B	$797.9M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$7.97B	-$33.3M	$83.8M	-$51.8M	$3.83B	$1.11B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$8.23B	$728.6M	$579.2M	$579.2M	—	—

3. PARR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PARR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (NYSE: PARR) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 72/100 at a spot price of $73.31 (-0.65% 1D, market cap $3.67B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, PARR ranks #28 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PARR compare to BTE and CPK in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), PARR carries a Roarable B (72/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 19.8%. By comparison, BTE (Baytex Energy Corp) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $3.81B) and CPK (Chesapeake Utilities Corporation) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 23.3x, ROIC 6.9%, cap $3.27B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PARR leads on earnings multiple (9.9x) while PARR leads on capital efficiency (19.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PARR?

Per PARR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000821483), Par Pacific Holdings Inc. generated $7.46B in revenue (-6.4% YoY), $369.4M in net income, and $296.5M in free cash flow against $3.83B in total assets and $797.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PARR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PARR last traded at $73.31 (-0.65% on volume of 659,975 shares), positioning the stock -9.88% below its 50-day simple moving average ($81.35) and +14.21% above its 200-day simple moving average ($64.19). Across its 52-week range of $34.37 to $90.74, PARR sits at the 69.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($64.15 to $82.47).

PARR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is PARR's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is PARR stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for PARR, spanning a range between $64.15 and $82.47.

Direct Sub-Reports: PARR RQD Cockpit PARR 12M Forecast PARR Earnings & Move PARR Dividends & DRIP PARR Insiders & 13F PARR Whale Options PARR Profit Sankey PARR News & Why