RISK WATCHSeekingAlpha • 12d ago
5 BDCs Priced For Loan Losses Worse Than 2008, Heading Into Q35 BDCs (OTF, FSK, MSDL, OBDC, OCSL) trade at big NAV discounts despite solid credit. Click for more and the way to approach these securities.
Why OTF Stock surged +2.78% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$9.62 +2.78% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.65
Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $4.41B
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER
Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on OTF Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is OTF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (NYSE: OTF) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $9.62 (+2.78% 1D, market cap $4.41B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, OTF ranks #297 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does OTF compare to GEF and OGC in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Equities), OTF carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.0%. By comparison, GEF (Greif Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 4.5x, ROIC 3.9%, cap $3.79B) and OGC (OceanaGold Corporation) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.67B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GEF leads on earnings multiple (4.5x) while BELFB leads on capital efficiency (15.5% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OTF?
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Per OTF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001747777), Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $720.4M in net income, and -$916.0M in free cash flow against $14.72B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.65 (+0.31%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OTF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY OTF SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (28% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.6% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (24% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 14% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 49.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$9.36-2.5% Next Q
42
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$9.13-0.1% Next Q
45
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$9.12+5.5% Next Q
47
CurrentGrade D$9.62-1.4% Hist 90D α
50
Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a OTF Turnaround Squeeze
While OTF currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.15) and Max Pain ($10.10) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.75.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OTF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “OTF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why OTF Stock surged +2.78% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) surged +2.78% to $9.62, trading at 14% of its 52-week range ($8.76 – $15). Stretched risk/reward at 6x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 14% of its 52-week range ($8.76 – $15) with RSI-14 at 49.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.6% around $9.62 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live OTF Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 13d ago
Navigating This Income Market Sell-OffNavigate the income market sell-off with risk management, scenario analysis and All-Weather allocation. Read the full analysis here.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring OTF)
- ✓Walkthrough of OTF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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OTF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -15.47%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $9.67H $9.67L $9.45C $9.62VOL 3.15M
RES: $11.75SUP: $8.64SMA50: $10.15SMA200: $11.14
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
OTF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-10.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OTF today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OTF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OTF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OTF)
Industrials Rank #297 of 485
⚔️ GEF vs OTF Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (OTF vs. GEF, OGC, BELFB, ARIS)
Industry: Diversified Equities (43 Tracked Issuers)Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) ranks #297 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #157 by equity capitalization ($4.41B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GEF leads on earnings valuation at 4.5x trailing P/E, while BELFB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.5% ROIC and 39.1% gross margin. BELFB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with OTF at 50/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTF
ACTIVE
Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. | D | 50/100 | 6.1x | — | 9.0% | +2.78% | $4.41B | Benchmark Subject |
| GEF Greif Inc. (Class A) | D+ | 56/100 | 4.5x | 22.2% | 3.9% | -0.31% | $3.79B | /gef-vs-otf → |
| OGC OceanaGold Corporation | D+ | 56/100 | — | — | — | -2.81% | $5.67B | /ogc-vs-otf → |
| BELFB Bel Fuse Inc. | C- | 61/100 | 45.9x | 39.1% | 15.5% | +3.50% | $3.40B | /belfb-vs-otf → |
| ARIS Aris Mining Corporation | D+ | 56/100 | — | — | — | -3.41% | $3.28B | /aris-vs-otf → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001747777In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (OTF) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $720.4M, operating cash flow of -$916.0M, and free cash flow of -$916.0M (-1527.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, OTF closed FY2025 with $14.72B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $720.4M | -$916.0M | -$916.0M | $14.72B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $319.2M | $64.2M | $64.2M | $6.72B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $369.1M | $708.4M | $708.4M | — | — |
3. OTF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs OTF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. (NYSE: OTF) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $9.62 (+2.78% 1D, market cap $4.41B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, OTF ranks #297 in composite RQD confidence.
How does OTF compare to GEF and OGC in the Industrials sector?
Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Equities), OTF carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.0%. By comparison, GEF (Greif Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 4.5x, ROIC 3.9%, cap $3.79B) and OGC (OceanaGold Corporation) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.67B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GEF leads on earnings multiple (4.5x) while BELFB leads on capital efficiency (15.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OTF?
Per OTF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001747777), Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $720.4M in net income, and -$916.0M in free cash flow against $14.72B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is OTF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
OTF last traded at $9.62 (+2.78% on volume of 2,446,517 shares), positioning the stock -5.22% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.15) and -13.64% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.14). Across its 52-week range of $8.76 to $15.00, OTF sits at the 13.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.6% ($9.08 to $10.16).
OTF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is OTF stock moving today?
Why OTF Stock surged +2.78% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 6x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.