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Nicolet Bankshares Inc. (NIC) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$172.52 +0.89% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $172.47

Nicolet Bankshares Inc. (NIC) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.62B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $172.47 (-0.03%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 3.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NIC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NIC SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 88% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 59.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$162.79+0.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$163.80+4.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$171.41+0.6% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$172.52+1.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NIC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, NIC faces multiple-compression risk if 24.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($167.90) or 200D SMA ($157.08) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($180.28) toward Bear Floor ($140.62).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NIC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NIC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±4.7%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (NIC)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for NIC.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating NIC & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on NIC
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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NIC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +17.78%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $173.3H $173.8L $171.0C $172.5VOL 127.3K

RES: $174.4SUP: $159.3SMA50: $167.9SMA200: $157.1

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NIC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NIC Butterfly Map → + Track NIC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

17.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NIC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NIC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NIC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NIC)

Financials Rank #218 of 1096 ⚔️ FIBK vs NIC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NIC vs. FIBK, RNST, WSBC, BANF)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Nicolet Bankshares Inc. (NIC) ranks #218 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #325 by equity capitalization ($3.62B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FIBK leads on earnings valuation at 12.0x trailing P/E, while BANF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.0% ROIC and — gross margin. BANF currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with NIC at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NIC ACTIVE Nicolet Bankshares Inc.	C+	68/100	24.0x	—	12.0%	+0.89%	$3.62B	Benchmark Subject
FIBK First Interstate BancSystem Inc.	C+	68/100	12.0x	—	8.8%	+1.04%	$3.62B	/fibk-vs-nic →
RNST Renasant Corporation	C+	67/100	20.3x	—	4.7%	+0.17%	$3.68B	/rnst-vs-nic →
WSBC WesBanco Inc.	C+	69/100	16.7x	—	5.5%	+0.99%	$3.73B	/wsbc-vs-nic →
BANF BancFirst Corporation	B-	71/100	15.6x	—	13.0%	+0.68%	$3.74B	/banf-vs-nic →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001174850

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Nicolet Bankshares Inc. (NIC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $150.7M, operating cash flow of $153.5M, and free cash flow of $149.4M (+27.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, NIC closed FY2025 with $9.19B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$150.7M	$153.5M	$149.4M	$9.19B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$124.1M	$133.7M	$116.8M	$8.80B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$61.5M	$108.0M	$108.0M	—	—

3. NIC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NIC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Nicolet Bankshares Inc. (NYSE: NIC) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $172.52 (+0.89% 1D, market cap $3.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NIC ranks #218 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NIC compare to FIBK and RNST in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), NIC carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.0%. By comparison, FIBK (First Interstate BancSystem Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 8.8%, cap $3.62B) and RNST (Renasant Corporation) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 20.3x, ROIC 4.7%, cap $3.68B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FIBK leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while BANF leads on capital efficiency (13.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NIC?

Per NIC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001174850), Nicolet Bankshares Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $150.7M in net income, and $149.4M in free cash flow against $9.19B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NIC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NIC last traded at $172.52 (+0.89% on volume of 158,482 shares), positioning the stock +2.75% above its 50-day simple moving average ($167.90) and +9.83% above its 200-day simple moving average ($157.08). Across its 52-week range of $117.54 to $180.00, NIC sits at the 88.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.7% ($164.41 to $180.63).

NIC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is NIC's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for NIC.

Direct Sub-Reports: NIC RQD Cockpit NIC 12M Forecast NIC Earnings & Move NIC Dividends & DRIP NIC Insiders & 13F NIC Whale Options NIC Profit Sankey NIC News & Why