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Why NCDL Stock surged +2.21% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$11.10 +2.21% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.12
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $548.2M
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER
Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NCDL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is NCDL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NYSE: NCDL) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $11.10 (+2.21% 1D, market cap $548.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, NCDL ranks #97 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does NCDL compare to ISOU and APXC in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Equities), NCDL carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.5%. By comparison, ISOU (IsoEnergy Ltd.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $575.4M) and APXC (Apex Critical Metals Corp.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $510.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NCDL leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while NCDL leads on capital efficiency (7.5% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NCDL?
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Per NCDL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001737924), Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $65.6M in net income, and $194.2M in free cash flow against $2.05B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.12 (+0.21%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 4.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.1% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NCDL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NCDL SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (22% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 17% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 54.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (21% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.9% FCF Margin ($194.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)
Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 8 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$10.81-1.8% Next Q
59
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C+$10.62-0.7% Next Q
62
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C+$10.55+5.2% Next Q
64
CurrentGrade C+$11.10+1.6% Hist 90D α
67
Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NCDL Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, NCDL faces multiple-compression risk if 8.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.54) or 200D SMA ($12.76) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($11.55) toward Bear Floor ($9.01).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NCDL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NCDL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why NCDL Stock surged +2.21% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) surged +2.21% to $11.10, trading at 17% of its 52-week range ($10.31 – $15.07). Solid steady margins (8% return on capital), mixed timing at 8x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 17% of its 52-week range ($10.31 – $15.07) with RSI-14 at 54.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.4% around $11.10 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $194.2M annual free cash flow.
Live NCDL Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (NCDL Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NCDL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.13%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $11.07H $11.18L $10.98C $11.10VOL 502.3K
RES: $12.40SUP: $10.04SMA50: $11.54SMA200: $12.76
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
NCDL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-4.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NCDL today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NCDL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NCDL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NCDL)
Industrials Rank #97 of 485
⚔️ ISOU vs NCDL Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (NCDL vs. ISOU, APXC, BMM, AUXX)
Industry: Diversified Equities (43 Tracked Issuers)Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) ranks #97 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #290 by equity capitalization ($548.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NCDL leads on earnings valuation at 8.4x trailing P/E, while NCDL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.5% ROIC and — gross margin. NCDL currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 67/100 (C+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCDL
ACTIVE
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. | C+ | 67/100 | 8.4x | — | 7.5% | +2.21% | $548.2M | Benchmark Subject |
| ISOU IsoEnergy Ltd. | D+ | 58/100 | — | — | — | -2.97% | $575.4M | /isou-vs-ncdl → |
| APXC Apex Critical Metals Corp. | C- | 61/100 | — | — | — | +3.72% | $510.9M | /apxc-vs-ncdl → |
| BMM Blue Moon Metals Inc. | D | 47/100 | — | — | — | -7.50% | $441.0M | /bmm-vs-ncdl → |
| AUXX Gold X2 Mining Inc. | D | 49/100 | — | — | — | -5.99% | $396.6M | /auxx-vs-ncdl → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001737924In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $65.6M, operating cash flow of $194.2M, and free cash flow of $194.2M (+165.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, NCDL closed FY2025 with $2.05B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $65.6M | $194.2M | $194.2M | $2.05B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $116.3M | -$297.2M | -$297.2M | $2.14B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $75.9M | -$369.5M | -$369.5M | — | — |
3. NCDL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs NCDL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NYSE: NCDL) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $11.10 (+2.21% 1D, market cap $548.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, NCDL ranks #97 in composite RQD confidence.
How does NCDL compare to ISOU and APXC in the Industrials sector?
Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Equities), NCDL carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.5%. By comparison, ISOU (IsoEnergy Ltd.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $575.4M) and APXC (Apex Critical Metals Corp.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $510.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NCDL leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while NCDL leads on capital efficiency (7.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NCDL?
Per NCDL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001737924), Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $65.6M in net income, and $194.2M in free cash flow against $2.05B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is NCDL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
NCDL last traded at $11.10 (+2.21% on volume of 462,375 shares), positioning the stock -3.81% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.54) and -13.01% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.76). Across its 52-week range of $10.31 to $15.07, NCDL sits at the 16.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($10.50 to $11.70).
NCDL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is NCDL stock moving today?
Why NCDL Stock surged +2.21% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (8% return on capital), mixed timing at 8x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.