Stock Ratings / Industrials / NCDL / insiders

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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$11.16 +0.54% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.15

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $548.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NCDL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NCDL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NYSE: NCDL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $11.16 (+0.54% 1D, market cap $548.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, NCDL ranks #245 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NCDL compare to ISOU and APXC in the Industrials sector?

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Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Equities), NCDL carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.5%. By comparison, ISOU (IsoEnergy Ltd.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $575.4M) and APXC (Apex Critical Metals Corp.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $510.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NCDL leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while NCDL leads on capital efficiency (7.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NCDL?

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Per NCDL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001737924), Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $65.6M in net income, and $194.2M in free cash flow against $2.05B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.15 (-0.09%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 4.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NCDL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NCDL SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.9% FCF Margin ($194.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$10.84-4.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$10.39+1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$10.49+6.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D$11.16-1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NCDL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NCDL currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.52) and Max Pain ($11.72) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.82.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NCDL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NCDL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

NCDL Smart-Money Thermometer: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (NCDL)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on NCDL. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NCDL)

✓Walkthrough of NCDL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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NCDL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.54%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $10.86H $11.16L $10.86C $11.16VOL 462.4K

RES: $12.39SUP: $10.00SMA50: $11.52SMA200: $12.75

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NCDL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NCDL Butterfly Map → + Track NCDL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-4.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NCDL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NCDL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NCDL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NCDL)

Industrials Rank #245 of 485 ⚔️ ISOU vs NCDL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (NCDL vs. ISOU, APXC, BMM, AUXX)

Industry: Diversified Equities (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) ranks #245 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #290 by equity capitalization ($548.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NCDL leads on earnings valuation at 8.4x trailing P/E, while NCDL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.5% ROIC and — gross margin. APXC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with NCDL at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NCDL ACTIVE Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.	D	50/100	8.4x	—	7.5%	+0.54%	$548.2M	Benchmark Subject
ISOU IsoEnergy Ltd.	D	46/100	—	—	—	-1.70%	$575.4M	/isou-vs-ncdl →
APXC Apex Critical Metals Corp.	C-	61/100	—	—	—	-8.11%	$510.9M	/apxc-vs-ncdl →
BMM Blue Moon Metals Inc.	D-	43/100	—	—	—	-8.11%	$441.0M	/bmm-vs-ncdl →
AUXX Gold X2 Mining Inc.	D-	41/100	—	—	—	-2.81%	$396.6M	/auxx-vs-ncdl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001737924

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $65.6M, operating cash flow of $194.2M, and free cash flow of $194.2M (+165.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, NCDL closed FY2025 with $2.05B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$65.6M	$194.2M	$194.2M	$2.05B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$116.3M	-$297.2M	-$297.2M	$2.14B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$75.9M	-$369.5M	-$369.5M	—	—

3. NCDL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NCDL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does NCDL compare to ISOU and APXC in the Industrials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NCDL?

Where is NCDL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NCDL last traded at $11.16 (+0.54% on volume of 502,314 shares), positioning the stock -3.12% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.52) and -12.47% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.75). Across its 52-week range of $10.31 to $15.07, NCDL sits at the 17.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($10.56 to $11.76).

NCDL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are NCDL insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies NCDL leadership and institutional positioning as: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING.

Direct Sub-Reports: NCDL RQD Cockpit NCDL 12M Forecast NCDL Earnings & Move NCDL Dividends & DRIP NCDL Insiders & 13F NCDL Whale Options NCDL Profit Sankey NCDL News & Why