Stock Ratings / Industrials / NCDL / earnings

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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5.4% Move

$11.10 +2.21% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.12

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $548.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.12 (+0.21%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 4.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NCDL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NCDL SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 17% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 54.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.9% FCF Margin ($194.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 8 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$10.81-1.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$10.62-0.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$10.55+5.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$11.10+1.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NCDL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, NCDL faces multiple-compression risk if 8.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.54) or 200D SMA ($12.76) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($11.55) toward Bear Floor ($9.01).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NCDL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NCDL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±5.4% Swing Band

±$0.60 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

NCDL Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 67/100

Trailing EPS: $1.33 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (67/100)Model Risk Weight (33/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	$65.6M	$194.2M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	$116.3M	-$297.2M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	$75.9M	-$369.5M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating NCDL & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on NCDL
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

NCDL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.13%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $11.07H $11.18L $10.98C $11.10VOL 502.3K

RES: $12.40SUP: $10.04SMA50: $11.54SMA200: $12.76

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NCDL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NCDL Butterfly Map → + Track NCDL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-4.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NCDL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NCDL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NCDL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NCDL)

Industrials Rank #97 of 485 ⚔️ ISOU vs NCDL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (NCDL vs. ISOU, APXC, BMM, AUXX)

Industry: Diversified Equities (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) ranks #97 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #290 by equity capitalization ($548.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NCDL leads on earnings valuation at 8.4x trailing P/E, while NCDL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.5% ROIC and — gross margin. NCDL currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NCDL ACTIVE Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.	C+	67/100	8.4x	—	7.5%	+2.21%	$548.2M	Benchmark Subject
ISOU IsoEnergy Ltd.	D+	58/100	—	—	—	-2.97%	$575.4M	/isou-vs-ncdl →
APXC Apex Critical Metals Corp.	C-	61/100	—	—	—	+3.72%	$510.9M	/apxc-vs-ncdl →
BMM Blue Moon Metals Inc.	D	47/100	—	—	—	-7.50%	$441.0M	/bmm-vs-ncdl →
AUXX Gold X2 Mining Inc.	D	49/100	—	—	—	-5.99%	$396.6M	/auxx-vs-ncdl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001737924

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $65.6M, operating cash flow of $194.2M, and free cash flow of $194.2M (+165.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, NCDL closed FY2025 with $2.05B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$65.6M	$194.2M	$194.2M	$2.05B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$116.3M	-$297.2M	-$297.2M	$2.14B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$75.9M	-$369.5M	-$369.5M	—	—

3. NCDL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NCDL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NYSE: NCDL) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $11.10 (+2.21% 1D, market cap $548.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, NCDL ranks #97 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NCDL compare to ISOU and APXC in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Equities), NCDL carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.5%. By comparison, ISOU (IsoEnergy Ltd.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $575.4M) and APXC (Apex Critical Metals Corp.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $510.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NCDL leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while NCDL leads on capital efficiency (7.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NCDL?

Per NCDL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001737924), Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $65.6M in net income, and $194.2M in free cash flow against $2.05B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NCDL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NCDL last traded at $11.10 (+2.21% on volume of 462,375 shares), positioning the stock -3.81% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.54) and -13.01% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.76). Across its 52-week range of $10.31 to $15.07, NCDL sits at the 16.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($10.50 to $11.70).