Why NBHC Stock advanced +0.21% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$37.56 +0.21% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.66

National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 72/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 8% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $1.67B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.67 (+0.28%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 344.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 72/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.7% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510072
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B+
Cash (12)Whales (13)SEC (13)Macro (18)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.3% Base Target
$50 Bull$40 Base$31 Bear
📬 FREE NBHC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NBHC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (72/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NBHC SCORES 72/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+18/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 20% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 37.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 8 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
80
Grade A-$37.93+0% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
77
Grade B+$37.92+2.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
75
Grade B+$38.88-3.4% Next Q
Current
72
Grade B$37.56+7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: A- (80) → B (72)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NBHC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 72/100 (B) score, NBHC faces multiple-compression risk if 15.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($39.71) or 200D SMA ($41.34) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($39.93) toward Bear Floor ($30.80).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NBHC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NBHC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why NBHC Stock advanced +0.21% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) advanced +0.21% to $37.56, trading at 20% of its 52-week range ($35.06 – $47.28). High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 8% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 20% of its 52-week range ($35.06 – $47.28) with RSI-14 at 37.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.4% around $37.56 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B (Buy) backed by 52% gross margin and $162.4M annual free cash flow.
Live NBHC Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTYahoo • 3d ago
What National Bank (NBHC) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call

National Bank (NYSE:NBHC) said it remains on track to deliver 10% full-year loan growth in 2026, even as third-quarter results were affected by elevated charge-offs tied primarily to two commercial credit events in its s

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (NBHC Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
NBHC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.04%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $37.83H $37.88L $37.25C $37.56VOL 538.1K
RES: $39.07SUP: $35.71SMA50: $39.71SMA200: $41.34
$48.01$44.98$41.94$38.90$35.87RES $39.07SUP $35.71$37.562026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NBHC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
7.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +2.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NBHC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NBHC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NBHC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NBHC)

Financials Rank #96 of 1096 ⚔️ QCRH vs NBHC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NBHC vs. QCRH, BFC, TCBK, LOB)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) ranks #96 by composite RQD confidence (72/100, grade B) and #464 by equity capitalization ($1.67B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, QCRH leads on earnings valuation at 13.2x trailing P/E, while QCRH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and — gross margin. NBHC currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 72/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NBHC ACTIVE
National Bank Holdings Corporation
B 72/100 15.3x — 7.9% +0.21% $1.67B Benchmark Subject
QCRH
QCR Holdings Inc.
C+ 69/100 13.2x — 11.4% +1.37% $1.68B /qcrh-vs-nbhc →
BFC
Bank First Corporation
D+ 55/100 23.4x — 11.1% +1.85% $1.67B /bfc-vs-nbhc →
TCBK
TriCo Bancshares
C 65/100 14.1x — 9.2% +0.87% $1.71B /tcbk-vs-nbhc →
LOB
Live Oak Bancshares Inc.
B- 71/100 15.3x — 8.5% +1.18% $1.62B /lob-vs-nbhc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001475841

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) reported GAAP revenue of $47.1M (+2.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $46.2M , and +0.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $109.6M, operating cash flow of $162.4M, and free cash flow of $162.4M (+4.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, NBHC closed FY2025 with $9.88B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $47.1M $109.6M $162.4M $162.4M $9.88B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $46.2M $118.8M $155.3M $155.3M $9.81B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $46.9M $142.0M $166.9M $166.9M — —

3. NBHC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NBHC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, National Bank Holdings Corporation (NYSE: NBHC) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 72/100 at a spot price of $37.56 (+0.21% 1D, market cap $1.67B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 18/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NBHC ranks #96 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NBHC compare to QCRH and BFC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), NBHC carries a Roarable B (72/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.9%. By comparison, QCRH (QCR Holdings Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 13.2x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $1.68B) and BFC (Bank First Corporation) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 23.4x, ROIC 11.1%, cap $1.67B). Among the 5-stock peer group, QCRH leads on earnings multiple (13.2x) while QCRH leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NBHC?

Per NBHC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001475841), National Bank Holdings Corporation generated $47.1M in revenue (+2.1% YoY), $109.6M in net income, and $162.4M in free cash flow against $9.88B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NBHC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NBHC last traded at $37.56 (+0.21% on volume of 408,208 shares), positioning the stock -5.41% below its 50-day simple moving average ($39.71) and -9.14% below its 200-day simple moving average ($41.34). Across its 52-week range of $35.06 to $47.28, NBHC sits at the 20.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 37.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.4% ($35.91 to $39.21).

NBHC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is NBHC stock moving today?

Why NBHC Stock advanced +0.21% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 8% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

LIVE TAPE SPY $755.72 -0.38% QQQ $690.49 -1.44% DIA $517.13 -0.37% IWM $279.33 +0.96% NVDA $213.66 -0.80% AAPL $348.91 +1.48% MSFT $530.14 -0.16% TSLA $403.30 -0.23% PLTR $196.42 -0.20% SOFI $17.61 +2.74% IBIT $43.36 -0.94% GLD $355.78 -1.34%