Stock Ratings / Materials / MTAL / earnings

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Metals Acquisition Corp. II (Class A) (MTAL) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±1.8% Move

$10.08 -0.15% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.06

Metals Acquisition Corp. II (Class A) (MTAL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $831.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MTAL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MTAL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Metals Acquisition Corp. II (Class A) (NYSE: MTAL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $10.08 (-0.15% 1D, market cap $831.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, MTAL ranks #171 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MTAL compare to SGML and ASM in the Materials sector?

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Within the Materials sector (Metal Mining), MTAL carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, SGML (Sigma Lithium Corporation) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $862.3M) and ASM (Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (Canada)) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $779.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTAL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while LAC leads on capital efficiency (-8.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTAL?

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Per MTAL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002107724), Metals Acquisition Corp. II (Class A) generated $0 in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $132.1K in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.06 (-0.22%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MTAL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MTAL SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.6% FCF Margin ($23.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$10.15-0.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$10.12-0.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$10.07+0.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D$10.08-5.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (57) → D (49)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MTAL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MTAL currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.16) and Max Pain ($10.58) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $12.39.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MTAL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MTAL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 49%NO 51%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±1.8% Swing Band

±$0.18 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

MTAL Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 49/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (49/100)Model Risk Weight (51/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	$0	$0	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MTAL)

✓Walkthrough of MTAL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MTAL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +0.00%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $10.08H $10.08L $10.08C $10.08

RES: $10.17SUP: $9.87SMA50: $10.16SMA200: $10.15

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MTAL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MTAL Butterfly Map → + Track MTAL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MTAL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MTAL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MTAL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MTAL)

Materials Rank #171 of 270 ⚔️ SGML vs MTAL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (MTAL vs. SGML, ASM, LAC, GSM)

Industry: Metal Mining (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Metals Acquisition Corp. II (Class A) (MTAL) ranks #171 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #148 by equity capitalization ($831.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MTAL leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while LAC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -8.1% ROIC and — gross margin. GSM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 58/100 (D+) compared with MTAL at 49/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MTAL ACTIVE Metals Acquisition Corp. II (Class A)	D	49/100	—	—	—	-0.15%	$831.2M	Benchmark Subject
SGML Sigma Lithium Corporation	D	49/100	—	—	—	-7.71%	$862.3M	/sgml-vs-mtal →
ASM Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (Canada)	D	48/100	—	—	—	-3.76%	$779.4M	/asm-vs-mtal →
LAC Lithium Americas Corp.	D-	37/100	—	—	-8.1%	-1.84%	$773.3M	/lac-vs-mtal →
GSM Ferroglobe PLC	D+	58/100	—	—	—	-0.12%	$749.3M	/gsm-vs-mtal →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002107724

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Metals Acquisition Corp. II (Class A) (MTAL) reported GAAP revenue of $0 , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, MTAL closed FY2025 with $132.1K in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: N/A).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$0	—	—	$132.1K	—

3. MTAL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MTAL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MTAL compare to SGML and ASM in the Materials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTAL?

Where is MTAL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MTAL last traded at $10.08 (-0.15% on volume of 1,211 shares), positioning the stock -0.79% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.16) and -0.69% below its 200-day simple moving average ($10.15). Across its 52-week range of $9.95 to $11.80, MTAL sits at the 7.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($9.90 to $10.26).

MTAL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is MTAL's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Metals Acquisition Corp. II (Class A) (MTAL)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is MTAL stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±1.8% event move for MTAL, spanning a range between $9.9 and $10.26.

Direct Sub-Reports: MTAL RQD Cockpit MTAL 12M Forecast MTAL Earnings & Move MTAL Dividends & DRIP MTAL Insiders & 13F MTAL Whale Options MTAL Profit Sankey MTAL News & Why