Stock Ratings / Technology / MPTI / options

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M-tron Industries Inc. (MPTI) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$69.02 -0.56% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $68.82

M-tron Industries Inc. (MPTI) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $300.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $68.82 (-0.29%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 14.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MPTI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MPTI SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 14.9% FCF Margin ($8.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 42% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 38.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B+$70.63-6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$66.41-1.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$65.21+5.8% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$69.02+1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B+ (74) → C+ (66)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MPTI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, MPTI faces multiple-compression risk if 35.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($73.51) or 200D SMA ($75.07) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($71.50) toward Bear Floor ($55.77).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MPTI• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MPTI Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±8.2%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (MPTI)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for MPTI.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MPTI & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MPTI
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✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MPTI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.35%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $67.30H $69.02L $64.57C $69.02VOL 44.6K

RES: $70.55SUP: $63.03SMA50: $73.51SMA200: $75.07

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MPTI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MPTI Butterfly Map → + Track MPTI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

27.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MPTI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MPTI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MPTI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MPTI)

Technology Rank #163 of 714 ⚔️ ERII vs MPTI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (MPTI vs. ERII, ASYS, VELO, SHMD)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, M-tron Industries Inc. (MPTI) ranks #163 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #446 by equity capitalization ($300.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ERII leads on earnings valuation at 15.8x trailing P/E, while MPTI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.2% ROIC and — gross margin. ERII currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with MPTI at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MPTI ACTIVE M-tron Industries Inc.	C+	66/100	35.5x	—	19.2%	-0.56%	$300.0M	Benchmark Subject
ERII Energy Recovery Inc.	B	72/100	15.8x	65.1%	11.9%	+2.45%	$363.4M	/erii-vs-mpti →
ASYS Amtech Systems Inc.	D	45/100	—	34.0%	-35.0%	-0.07%	$239.5M	/asys-vs-mpti →
VELO Velo3D Inc.	D-	42/100	—	-16.1%	-35.0%	+1.14%	$227.3M	/velo-vs-mpti →
SHMD SCHMID Group N.V. (Class A)	D+	56/100	—	—	—	-4.19%	$186.5M	/shmd-vs-mpti →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001902314

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), M-tron Industries Inc. (MPTI) reported GAAP revenue of $54.4M (+11.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $49.0M , and +32.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $8.4M, operating cash flow of $10.7M, and free cash flow of $8.1M (+44.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MPTI closed FY2025 with $68.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$54.4M	$8.4M	$10.7M	$8.1M	$68.4M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$49.0M	$7.6M	$7.5M	$5.6M	$36.6M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$41.2M	$3.5M	$4.4M	$4.4M	—	—

3. MPTI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MPTI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, M-tron Industries Inc. (NYSE: MPTI) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $69.02 (-0.56% 1D, market cap $300.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, MPTI ranks #163 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MPTI compare to ERII and ASYS in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), MPTI carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 35.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 19.2%. By comparison, ERII (Energy Recovery Inc.) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 15.8x, ROIC 11.9%, cap $363.4M) and ASYS (Amtech Systems Inc.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $239.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ERII leads on earnings multiple (15.8x) while MPTI leads on capital efficiency (19.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPTI?

Per MPTI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001902314), M-tron Industries Inc. generated $54.4M in revenue (+11.0% YoY), $8.4M in net income, and $8.1M in free cash flow against $68.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MPTI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MPTI last traded at $69.02 (-0.56% on volume of 33,998 shares), positioning the stock -6.11% below its 50-day simple moving average ($73.51) and -8.06% below its 200-day simple moving average ($75.07). Across its 52-week range of $43.55 to $104.85, MPTI sits at the 41.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.2% ($63.36 to $74.68).