MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why MPTI Stock slipped -0.56% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$69.02 -0.56% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $68.82
M-tron Industries Inc. (MPTI) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $300.0M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $68.82 (-0.29%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 14.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MPTI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MPTI SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (26% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 14.9% FCF Margin ($8.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (23% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 42% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 38.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B+$70.63-6% Next Q
74
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B$66.41-1.8% Next Q
71
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B-$65.21+5.8% Next Q
69
CurrentGrade C+$69.02+1.4% Hist 90D α
66
Trajectory: B+ (74) → C+ (66)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MPTI Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, MPTI faces multiple-compression risk if 35.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($73.51) or 200D SMA ($75.07) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($71.50) toward Bear Floor ($55.77).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MPTI• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MPTI Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why MPTI Stock slipped -0.56% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
M-tron Industries Inc. (MPTI) slipped -0.56% to $69.02, trading at 42% of its 52-week range ($43.55 – $104.85). Solid steady margins (19% return on capital), mixed timing at 36x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 42% of its 52-week range ($43.55 – $104.85) with RSI-14 at 38.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.2% around $69.02 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $8.1M annual free cash flow.
Live MPTI Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MPTI Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
MPTI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.35%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $67.30H $69.02L $64.57C $69.02VOL 44.6K
RES: $70.55SUP: $63.03SMA50: $73.51SMA200: $75.07
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
MPTI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
27.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +11.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MPTI today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MPTI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MPTI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MPTI)
Technology Rank #163 of 714
⚔️ ERII vs MPTI Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (MPTI vs. ERII, ASYS, VELO, SHMD)
Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, M-tron Industries Inc. (MPTI) ranks #163 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #446 by equity capitalization ($300.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ERII leads on earnings valuation at 15.8x trailing P/E, while MPTI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.2% ROIC and — gross margin. ERII currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with MPTI at 66/100 (C+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPTI
ACTIVE
M-tron Industries Inc. | C+ | 66/100 | 35.5x | — | 19.2% | -0.56% | $300.0M | Benchmark Subject |
| ERII Energy Recovery Inc. | B | 72/100 | 15.8x | 65.1% | 11.9% | +2.45% | $363.4M | /erii-vs-mpti → |
| ASYS Amtech Systems Inc. | D | 45/100 | — | 34.0% | -35.0% | -0.07% | $239.5M | /asys-vs-mpti → |
| VELO Velo3D Inc. | D- | 42/100 | — | -16.1% | -35.0% | +1.14% | $227.3M | /velo-vs-mpti → |
| SHMD SCHMID Group N.V. (Class A) | D+ | 56/100 | — | — | — | -4.19% | $186.5M | /shmd-vs-mpti → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001902314In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), M-tron Industries Inc. (MPTI) reported GAAP revenue of $54.4M (+11.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $49.0M , and +32.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $8.4M, operating cash flow of $10.7M, and free cash flow of $8.1M (+44.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MPTI closed FY2025 with $68.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $54.4M | $8.4M | $10.7M | $8.1M | $68.4M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $49.0M | $7.6M | $7.5M | $5.6M | $36.6M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $41.2M | $3.5M | $4.4M | $4.4M | — | — |
3. MPTI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs MPTI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, M-tron Industries Inc. (NYSE: MPTI) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $69.02 (-0.56% 1D, market cap $300.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, MPTI ranks #163 in composite RQD confidence.
How does MPTI compare to ERII and ASYS in the Technology sector?
Within the Technology sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), MPTI carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 35.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 19.2%. By comparison, ERII (Energy Recovery Inc.) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 15.8x, ROIC 11.9%, cap $363.4M) and ASYS (Amtech Systems Inc.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $239.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ERII leads on earnings multiple (15.8x) while MPTI leads on capital efficiency (19.2% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPTI?
Per MPTI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001902314), M-tron Industries Inc. generated $54.4M in revenue (+11.0% YoY), $8.4M in net income, and $8.1M in free cash flow against $68.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is MPTI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
MPTI last traded at $69.02 (-0.56% on volume of 33,998 shares), positioning the stock -6.11% below its 50-day simple moving average ($73.51) and -8.06% below its 200-day simple moving average ($75.07). Across its 52-week range of $43.55 to $104.85, MPTI sits at the 41.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.2% ($63.36 to $74.68).
MPTI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is MPTI stock moving today?
Why MPTI Stock slipped -0.56% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (19% return on capital), mixed timing at 36x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.