Stock Ratings / Health Care / MLYS / financials

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Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

Q: Is MLYS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: MLYS) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $21.24 (-0.65% 1D, market cap $1.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, MLYS ranks #540 in composite RQD confidence.

Q: How does MLYS compare to ZBIO and TRAX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), MLYS carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -28.4%. By comparison, ZBIO (Zenas BioPharma Inc.) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.87B) and TRAX (First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.90B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MLYS leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MLYS leads on capital efficiency (-28.4% ROIC).

Q: What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MLYS?

Per MLYS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001933414), Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$154.7M in net income, and -$142.4M in free cash flow against $661.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Q: Where is MLYS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MLYS last traded at $21.24 (-0.65% on volume of 2,077,183 shares), positioning the stock -14.29% below its 50-day simple moving average ($24.78) and -21.30% below its 200-day simple moving average ($26.99). Across its 52-week range of $18.11 to $47.65, MLYS sits at the 10.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 29.9 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($18.59 to $23.89).

Q: How profitable is Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), MLYS converted $4.0B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

$21.24 -0.65% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.17

Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.88B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $21.17 (-0.31%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MLYS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MLYS SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 11% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 29.9 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$23.37-13.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$20.30+1.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$20.55+3.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$21.24-6.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (51) → D- (43)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MLYS Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MLYS currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($24.78) and Max Pain ($22.30) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $50.03.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MLYS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MLYS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 43%NO 57%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How MLYS Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $4.00B

FY24

Rev $4.00B

FY25

Rev $4.00B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$4.00B	52%	-4.3%	-$154.7M	-$142.4M	-28.4%
FY 2024	$4.00B	52%	-4.8%	-$177.8M	-$166.3M	-45%
FY 2023	$4.00B	52%	-2.1%	-$71.9M	-$81.2M	-28.4%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MLYS)

✓Walkthrough of MLYS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MLYS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -20.30%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $20.99H $21.24L $18.11C $21.24VOL 3.98M

RES: $32.71SUP: $19.21SMA50: $24.78SMA200: $26.99

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MLYS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MLYS Butterfly Map → + Track MLYS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MLYS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MLYS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MLYS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MLYS)

Health Care Rank #540 of 1016 ⚔️ ZBIO vs MLYS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (MLYS vs. ZBIO, TRAX, ADRX, BRVE)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) ranks #540 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #275 by equity capitalization ($1.88B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MLYS leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while MLYS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -28.4% ROIC and — gross margin. ADRX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with MLYS at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MLYS ACTIVE Mineralys Therapeutics Inc.	D-	43/100	—	—	-28.4%	-0.65%	$1.88B	Benchmark Subject
ZBIO Zenas BioPharma Inc.	D-	39/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.04%	$1.87B	/zbio-vs-mlys →
TRAX First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc.	E	33/100	—	—	-35.0%	-1.08%	$1.90B	/trax-vs-mlys →
ADRX ADARx Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D+	52/100	—	—	—	-0.56%	$1.91B	/adrx-vs-mlys →
BRVE Braveheart Bio Inc.	D	47/100	—	—	—	-2.62%	$1.91B	/brve-vs-mlys →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001933414

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$154.7M, operating cash flow of -$142.4M, and free cash flow of -$142.4M (+14.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, MLYS closed FY2025 with $661.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$154.7M	-$142.4M	-$142.4M	$661.8M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$177.8M	-$166.3M	-$166.3M	$205.9M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$71.9M	-$81.2M	-$81.2M	—	—

3. MLYS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MLYS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: MLYS) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $21.24 (-0.65% 1D, market cap $1.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, MLYS ranks #540 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MLYS compare to ZBIO and TRAX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), MLYS carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -28.4%. By comparison, ZBIO (Zenas BioPharma Inc.) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.87B) and TRAX (First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.90B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MLYS leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MLYS leads on capital efficiency (-28.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MLYS?

Per MLYS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001933414), Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$154.7M in net income, and -$142.4M in free cash flow against $661.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MLYS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MLYS last traded at $21.24 (-0.65% on volume of 2,077,183 shares), positioning the stock -14.29% below its 50-day simple moving average ($24.78) and -21.30% below its 200-day simple moving average ($26.99). Across its 52-week range of $18.11 to $47.65, MLYS sits at the 10.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 29.9 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($18.59 to $23.89).

MLYS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (MLYS)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), MLYS converted $4.0B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: MLYS RQD Cockpit MLYS 12M Forecast MLYS Earnings & Move MLYS Dividends & DRIP MLYS Insiders & 13F MLYS Whale Options MLYS Profit Sankey MLYS News & Why