Stock Ratings / Financials / MITT / forecast

STRW (76) ACRE (46) RC (48) SITC (67) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. (MITT) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$5.70 +1.42% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.70

TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. (MITT) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $181.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.70 (+0.07%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 1.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MITT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MITT SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.5% FCF Margin ($59.6M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$5.63-4.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$5.36+1.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$5.44+4.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$5.70-0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MITT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, MITT faces multiple-compression risk if 3.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($6.06) or 200D SMA ($7.37) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($5.67) toward Bear Floor ($4.42).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MITT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MITT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MITT Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $5.70: 1754.4 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $4.42

$7,754

$-2,246 (-22.5%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $5.67

$9,947

$-53 (-0.5%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $9.73

$17,070

+$7,070 (+70.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$6	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$9	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$5	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MITT)

✓Walkthrough of MITT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MITT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -27.76%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $5.73H $5.77L $5.58C $5.70VOL 391.9K

RES: $5.85SUP: $5.07SMA50: $6.06SMA200: $7.37

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MITT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MITT Butterfly Map → + Track MITT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MITT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MITT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MITT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MITT)

Financials Rank #656 of 1096 ⚔️ STRW vs MITT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MITT vs. STRW, ACRE, RC, SITC)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. (MITT) ranks #656 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #904 by equity capitalization ($181.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MITT leads on earnings valuation at 3.7x trailing P/E, while STRW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. STRW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with MITT at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MITT ACTIVE TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc.	D+	57/100	3.7x	—	8.7%	+1.42%	$181.3M	Benchmark Subject
STRW Strawberry Fields REIT Inc.	B+	76/100	23.5x	—	85.0%	+1.37%	$178.1M	/strw-vs-mitt →
ACRE Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation	D	46/100	—	—	-0.2%	0.00%	$189.7M	/acre-vs-mitt →
RC Ready Capital Corporation	D	48/100	—	—	-14.3%	-2.54%	$190.0M	/rc-vs-mitt →
SITC SITE Centers Corp.	C+	67/100	—	—	53.1%	+0.79%	$200.5M	/sitc-vs-mitt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001514281

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. (MITT) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $48.7M, operating cash flow of $59.6M, and free cash flow of $59.6M (+6.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, MITT closed FY2025 with $8.71B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$48.7M	$59.6M	$59.6M	$8.71B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$55.7M	$55.8M	$55.8M	$6.91B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$53.8M	$28.1M	$28.1M	—	—

3. MITT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MITT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. (NYSE: MITT) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $5.70 (+1.42% 1D, market cap $181.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MITT ranks #656 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MITT compare to STRW and ACRE in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), MITT carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 3.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.7%. By comparison, STRW (Strawberry Fields REIT Inc.) holds a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 23.5x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $178.1M) and ACRE (Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.2%, cap $189.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MITT leads on earnings multiple (3.7x) while STRW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MITT?

Per MITT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001514281), TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $48.7M in net income, and $59.6M in free cash flow against $8.71B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MITT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MITT last traded at $5.70 (+1.42% on volume of 297,099 shares), positioning the stock -5.94% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.06) and -22.66% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.37). Across its 52-week range of $5.20 to $9.27, MITT sits at the 12.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.2% ($5.35 to $6.05).

MITT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MITT's 12-month stock price target?

TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. (MITT) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $5.67 (-0.5% from $5.70), with a bull-case target of $9.73 and a bear-case floor of $4.42.

Is MITT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates MITT D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 57/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: MITT RQD Cockpit MITT 12M Forecast MITT Earnings & Move MITT Dividends & DRIP MITT Insiders & 13F MITT Whale Options MITT Profit Sankey MITT News & Why