Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MHO / forecast

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M/I Homes Inc. (MHO) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$128.34 +3.84% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $128.98

M/I Homes Inc. (MHO) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.21B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $128.98 (+0.50%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 2.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MHO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MHO SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 30% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 49 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 11.5% operating margin leave 11 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$127.82-2.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$124.48-0.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$123.97+3.5% Next Q

Current

Grade C$128.34+1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (57) → C (65)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MHO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, MHO faces multiple-compression risk if 8.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 20.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($136.23) or 200D SMA ($137.65) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($132.38) toward Bear Floor ($103.26).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MHO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MHO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MHO Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $128.34: 77.9 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $103.26

$8,046

$-1,954 (-19.5%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $132.38

$10,315

+$315 (+3.1%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $171.84

$13,389

+$3,389 (+33.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$138	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$162	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$118	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MHO Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MHO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -2.40%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $129.9H $131.9L $127.5C $128.3VOL 225.2K

RES: $144.8SUP: $110.8SMA50: $136.2SMA200: $137.7

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MHO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MHO Butterfly Map → + Track MHO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-5.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MHO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MHO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MHO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MHO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #278 of 1011 ⚔️ KBH vs MHO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MHO vs. KBH, GEO, GRBK, MTH)

Industry: Homebuilding (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, M/I Homes Inc. (MHO) ranks #278 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #350 by equity capitalization ($3.21B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KBH leads on earnings valuation at 6.8x trailing P/E, while GRBK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.5% ROIC and 31.4% gross margin. MHO currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MHO ACTIVE M/I Homes Inc.	C	65/100	8.0x	23.0%	12.6%	+3.84%	$3.21B	Benchmark Subject
KBH KB Home	C-	60/100	6.8x	—	11.0%	+3.23%	$2.90B	/kbh-vs-mho →
GEO Geo Group Inc	D	49/100	14.8x	—	6.6%	+3.52%	$3.76B	/geo-vs-mho →
GRBK Green Brick Partners Inc.	C	65/100	7.7x	31.4%	18.5%	-0.62%	$2.65B	/grbk-vs-mho →
MTH Meritage Homes Corporation	C-	59/100	9.3x	—	8.0%	+3.98%	$4.20B	/mth-vs-mho →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000799292

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), M/I Homes Inc. (MHO) reported GAAP revenue of $4.42B (-1.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.50B , and +9.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $402.9M, operating cash flow of $137.3M, and free cash flow of $127.7M (-25.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, MHO closed FY2025 with $4.78B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.43, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$4.42B	$402.9M	$137.3M	$127.7M	$4.78B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$4.50B	$563.7M	$179.7M	$171.3M	$4.55B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$4.03B	$465.4M	$552.1M	$552.1M	—	—

3. MHO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MHO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, M/I Homes Inc. (NYSE: MHO) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $128.34 (+3.84% 1D, market cap $3.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MHO ranks #278 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MHO compare to KBH and GEO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), MHO carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.0x, gross margin of 23.0%, and ROIC of 12.6%. By comparison, KBH (KB Home) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 6.8x, ROIC 11.0%, cap $2.90B) and GEO (Geo Group Inc) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 14.8x, ROIC 6.6%, cap $3.76B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KBH leads on earnings multiple (6.8x) while GRBK leads on capital efficiency (18.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MHO?

Per MHO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000799292), M/I Homes Inc. generated $4.42B in revenue (-1.9% YoY), $402.9M in net income, and $127.7M in free cash flow against $4.78B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MHO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MHO last traded at $128.34 (+3.84% on volume of 267,016 shares), positioning the stock -5.79% below its 50-day simple moving average ($136.23) and -6.76% below its 200-day simple moving average ($137.65). Across its 52-week range of $113.40 to $163.66, MHO sits at the 29.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.5% ($118.71 to $137.97).

MHO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MHO's 12-month stock price target?

M/I Homes Inc. (MHO) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $132.38 (+3.1% from $128.34), with a bull-case target of $171.84 and a bear-case floor of $103.26.

Is MHO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates MHO C (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 65/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: MHO RQD Cockpit MHO 12M Forecast MHO Earnings & Move MHO Dividends & DRIP MHO Insiders & 13F MHO Whale Options MHO Profit Sankey MHO News & Why