MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why MGPI Stock surged +2.87% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$17.21 +2.87% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.27
MGP Ingredients Inc. (MGPI) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $368.7M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.27 (+0.33%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 14.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MGPI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MGPI SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (28% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 34% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 68.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (26% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.3% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)
Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 15 pts from forensic ceiling
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$13.78+9.7% Next Q
42
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$15.12+4% Next Q
45
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$15.73+9.4% Next Q
47
CurrentGrade D$17.21-1.4% Hist 90D α
50
Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MGPI Turnaround Squeeze
While MGPI currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($15.00) and Max Pain ($18.07) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $27.95.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MGPI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MGPI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why MGPI Stock surged +2.87% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
MGP Ingredients Inc. (MGPI) surged +2.87% to $17.21, trading at 34% of its 52-week range ($12.42 – $26.62). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-11% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 34% of its 52-week range ($12.42 – $26.62) with RSI-14 at 68.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±10.3% around $17.21 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 37.2% gross margin and $76.0M annual free cash flow.
Live MGPI Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MGPI)
- ✓Walkthrough of MGPI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MGPI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.69%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $17.34H $17.76L $16.85C $17.21VOL 349.4K
RES: $20.33SUP: $11.58SMA50: $15.00SMA200: $18.27
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
MGPI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -23.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MGPI today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MGPI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MGPI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MGPI)
Consumer Staples Rank #91 of 146
⚔️ SUJA vs MGPI Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (MGPI vs. SUJA, BRCC, AGCC, WEST)
Industry: Beverages (Production/Distribution) (35 Tracked Issuers)Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MGP Ingredients Inc. (MGPI) ranks #91 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #88 by equity capitalization ($368.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MGPI leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while AGCC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 1.4% ROIC and 30.4% gross margin. SUJA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 54/100 (D+) compared with MGPI at 50/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGPI
ACTIVE
MGP Ingredients Inc. | D | 50/100 | — | 37.2% | -10.7% | +2.87% | $368.7M | Benchmark Subject |
| SUJA Suja Life Inc. (Class A) | D+ | 54/100 | — | — | — | +5.70% | $415.2M | /suja-vs-mgpi → |
| BRCC BRC Inc. (Class A) | D- | 42/100 | — | 34.6% | -26.4% | +6.91% | $325.1M | /brcc-vs-mgpi → |
| AGCC Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (Class A) | D | 48/100 | — | 30.4% | 1.4% | +5.73% | $872.8M | /agcc-vs-mgpi → |
| WEST Westrock Coffee Company | D- | 37/100 | — | 12.7% | -11.8% | +2.79% | $994.2M | /west-vs-mgpi → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000835011In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MGP Ingredients Inc. (MGPI) reported GAAP revenue of $536.4M (-23.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $703.6M , and -35.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$107.8M, operating cash flow of $121.5M, and free cash flow of $76.0M (+144.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, MGPI closed FY2025 with $1.24B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.43, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $536.4M | -$107.8M | $121.5M | $76.0M | $1.24B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $703.6M | $34.7M | $102.3M | $31.1M | $1.41B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $836.5M | $107.5M | $83.8M | $83.8M | — | — |
3. MGPI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs MGPI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, MGP Ingredients Inc. (NASDAQ: MGPI) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $17.21 (+2.87% 1D, market cap $368.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, MGPI ranks #91 in composite RQD confidence.
How does MGPI compare to SUJA and BRCC in the Consumer Staples sector?
Within the Consumer Staples sector (Beverages (Production/Distribution)), MGPI carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 37.2%, and ROIC of -10.7%. By comparison, SUJA (Suja Life Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $415.2M) and BRCC (BRC Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -26.4%, cap $325.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MGPI leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AGCC leads on capital efficiency (1.4% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MGPI?
Per MGPI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000835011), MGP Ingredients Inc. generated $536.4M in revenue (-23.8% YoY), -$107.8M in net income, and $76.0M in free cash flow against $1.24B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is MGPI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
MGPI last traded at $17.21 (+2.87% on volume of 392,761 shares), positioning the stock +14.73% above its 50-day simple moving average ($15.00) and -5.80% below its 200-day simple moving average ($18.27). Across its 52-week range of $12.42 to $26.62, MGPI sits at the 33.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 68.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.3% ($15.44 to $18.98).
MGPI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is MGPI stock moving today?
Why MGPI Stock surged +2.87% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-11% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.