Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / MGPI / financials

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MGP Ingredients Inc. (MGPI) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$17.21 +2.87% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.27

MGP Ingredients Inc. (MGPI) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $368.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.27 (+0.33%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 14.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

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Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MGPI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MGPI SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 34% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 68.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (26% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.3% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 15 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$13.78+9.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$15.12+4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$15.73+9.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D$17.21-1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MGPI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MGPI currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($15.00) and Max Pain ($18.07) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $27.95.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MGPI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MGPI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How MGPI Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$76.0M (14.2% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $836.5M

FY24

Rev $703.6M

FY25

Rev $536.4M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$536.4M	37.2%	-17.6%	-$107.8M	$76.0M	-10.7%
FY 2024	$703.6M	40.7%	10.6%	$34.7M	$31.1M	7.3%
FY 2023	$836.5M	37.2%	17.8%	$107.5M	$83.8M	-10.7%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MGPI)

✓Walkthrough of MGPI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MGPI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.69%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $17.34H $17.76L $16.85C $17.21VOL 349.4K

RES: $20.33SUP: $11.58SMA50: $15.00SMA200: $18.27

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MGPI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MGPI Butterfly Map → + Track MGPI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -23.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MGPI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MGPI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MGPI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MGPI)

Consumer Staples Rank #91 of 146 ⚔️ SUJA vs MGPI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (MGPI vs. SUJA, BRCC, AGCC, WEST)

Industry: Beverages (Production/Distribution) (35 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MGP Ingredients Inc. (MGPI) ranks #91 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #88 by equity capitalization ($368.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MGPI leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while AGCC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 1.4% ROIC and 30.4% gross margin. SUJA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 54/100 (D+) compared with MGPI at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MGPI ACTIVE MGP Ingredients Inc.	D	50/100	—	37.2%	-10.7%	+2.87%	$368.7M	Benchmark Subject
SUJA Suja Life Inc. (Class A)	D+	54/100	—	—	—	+5.70%	$415.2M	/suja-vs-mgpi →
BRCC BRC Inc. (Class A)	D-	42/100	—	34.6%	-26.4%	+6.91%	$325.1M	/brcc-vs-mgpi →
AGCC Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (Class A)	D	48/100	—	30.4%	1.4%	+5.73%	$872.8M	/agcc-vs-mgpi →
WEST Westrock Coffee Company	D-	37/100	—	12.7%	-11.8%	+2.79%	$994.2M	/west-vs-mgpi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000835011

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MGP Ingredients Inc. (MGPI) reported GAAP revenue of $536.4M (-23.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $703.6M , and -35.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$107.8M, operating cash flow of $121.5M, and free cash flow of $76.0M (+144.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, MGPI closed FY2025 with $1.24B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.43, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$536.4M	-$107.8M	$121.5M	$76.0M	$1.24B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$703.6M	$34.7M	$102.3M	$31.1M	$1.41B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$836.5M	$107.5M	$83.8M	$83.8M	—	—

3. MGPI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MGPI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, MGP Ingredients Inc. (NASDAQ: MGPI) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $17.21 (+2.87% 1D, market cap $368.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, MGPI ranks #91 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MGPI compare to SUJA and BRCC in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Beverages (Production/Distribution)), MGPI carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 37.2%, and ROIC of -10.7%. By comparison, SUJA (Suja Life Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $415.2M) and BRCC (BRC Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -26.4%, cap $325.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MGPI leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AGCC leads on capital efficiency (1.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MGPI?

Per MGPI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000835011), MGP Ingredients Inc. generated $536.4M in revenue (-23.8% YoY), -$107.8M in net income, and $76.0M in free cash flow against $1.24B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MGPI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MGPI last traded at $17.21 (+2.87% on volume of 392,761 shares), positioning the stock +14.73% above its 50-day simple moving average ($15.00) and -5.80% below its 200-day simple moving average ($18.27). Across its 52-week range of $12.42 to $26.62, MGPI sits at the 33.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 68.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.3% ($15.44 to $18.98).

MGPI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is MGP Ingredients Inc. (MGPI)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), MGPI converted $536.4M of revenue into a 37.2% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $76.0M in free cash flow (14.2% FCF margin).

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