Stock Ratings / Financials / MFA / insiders

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MFA Financial Inc. (MFA) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$6.80 +0.15% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.79

MFA Financial Inc. (MFA) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $687.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.79 (-0.16%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 1.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MFA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MFA SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 10% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 33.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$6.88-4.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$6.59+1.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$6.66+2.1% Next Q

Current

Grade C$6.80+0.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (70) → C (62)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MFA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, MFA faces multiple-compression risk if 3.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($7.81) or 200D SMA ($9.20) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($6.92) toward Bear Floor ($5.40).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MFA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MFA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

MFA Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (MFA)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on MFA. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MFA Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MFA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -33.66%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $6.79H $6.83L $6.61C $6.80VOL 2.91M

RES: $8.31SUP: $6.03SMA50: $7.81SMA200: $9.20

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MFA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MFA Butterfly Map → + Track MFA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MFA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MFA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MFA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MFA)

Financials Rank #435 of 1096 ⚔️ CLDT vs MFA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MFA vs. CLDT, CIM, PSTL, BFS)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MFA Financial Inc. (MFA) ranks #435 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #630 by equity capitalization ($687.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MFA leads on earnings valuation at 3.9x trailing P/E, while BFS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 51.6% ROIC and — gross margin. BFS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with MFA at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MFA ACTIVE MFA Financial Inc.	C	62/100	3.9x	—	9.7%	+0.15%	$687.4M	Benchmark Subject
CLDT Chatham Lodging Trust of	C	62/100	46.3x	—	4.5%	+0.60%	$697.6M	/cldt-vs-mfa →
CIM Chimera Investment Corporation	D-	40/100	—	—	9.0%	+1.80%	$709.9M	/cim-vs-mfa →
PSTL Postal Realty Trust Inc. (Class A)	C	65/100	46.4x	—	9.6%	+1.93%	$656.4M	/pstl-vs-mfa →
BFS Saul Centers Inc.	B+	76/100	19.4x	—	51.6%	+1.56%	$725.9M	/bfs-vs-mfa →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001055160

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MFA Financial Inc. (MFA) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $176.8M, operating cash flow of $76.2M, and free cash flow of $76.2M (-61.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, MFA closed FY2025 with $13.05B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$176.8M	$76.2M	$76.2M	$13.05B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$119.3M	$200.1M	$200.1M	$11.41B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$80.2M	$108.7M	$108.7M	—	—

3. MFA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MFA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, MFA Financial Inc. (NYSE: MFA) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $6.80 (+0.15% 1D, market cap $687.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MFA ranks #435 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MFA compare to CLDT and CIM in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), MFA carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 3.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.7%. By comparison, CLDT (Chatham Lodging Trust of) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 46.3x, ROIC 4.5%, cap $697.6M) and CIM (Chimera Investment Corporation) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 9.0%, cap $709.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MFA leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while BFS leads on capital efficiency (51.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MFA?

Per MFA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001055160), MFA Financial Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $176.8M in net income, and $76.2M in free cash flow against $13.05B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MFA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MFA last traded at $6.80 (+0.15% on volume of 3,304,344 shares), positioning the stock -12.93% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.81) and -26.09% below its 200-day simple moving average ($9.20). Across its 52-week range of $6.38 to $10.43, MFA sits at the 10.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.1% ($6.39 to $7.21).

MFA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are MFA insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies MFA leadership and institutional positioning as: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION.

Direct Sub-Reports: MFA RQD Cockpit MFA 12M Forecast MFA Earnings & Move MFA Dividends & DRIP MFA Insiders & 13F MFA Whale Options MFA Profit Sankey MFA News & Why