Stock Ratings / Financials / MFA / earnings

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MFA Financial Inc. (MFA) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.1% Move

$6.80 +0.15% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.79

MFA Financial Inc. (MFA) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $687.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.79 (-0.16%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 1.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MFA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MFA SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 10% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 33.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$6.88-4.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$6.59+1.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$6.66+2.1% Next Q

Current

Grade C$6.80+0.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (70) → C (62)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MFA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, MFA faces multiple-compression risk if 3.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($7.81) or 200D SMA ($9.20) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($6.92) toward Bear Floor ($5.40).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MFA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MFA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.1% Swing Band

±$0.41 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

MFA Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 62/100

Trailing EPS: $1.75 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (62/100)Model Risk Weight (38/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	$176.8M	$76.2M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	$119.3M	$200.1M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	$80.2M	$108.7M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MFA & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MFA
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MFA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -33.66%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $6.79H $6.83L $6.61C $6.80VOL 2.91M

RES: $8.31SUP: $6.03SMA50: $7.81SMA200: $9.20

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MFA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MFA Butterfly Map → + Track MFA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MFA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MFA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MFA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MFA)

Financials Rank #435 of 1096 ⚔️ CLDT vs MFA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MFA vs. CLDT, CIM, PSTL, BFS)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MFA Financial Inc. (MFA) ranks #435 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #630 by equity capitalization ($687.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MFA leads on earnings valuation at 3.9x trailing P/E, while BFS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 51.6% ROIC and — gross margin. BFS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with MFA at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MFA ACTIVE MFA Financial Inc.	C	62/100	3.9x	—	9.7%	+0.15%	$687.4M	Benchmark Subject
CLDT Chatham Lodging Trust of	C	62/100	46.3x	—	4.5%	+0.60%	$697.6M	/cldt-vs-mfa →
CIM Chimera Investment Corporation	D-	40/100	—	—	9.0%	+1.80%	$709.9M	/cim-vs-mfa →
PSTL Postal Realty Trust Inc. (Class A)	C	65/100	46.4x	—	9.6%	+1.93%	$656.4M	/pstl-vs-mfa →
BFS Saul Centers Inc.	B+	76/100	19.4x	—	51.6%	+1.56%	$725.9M	/bfs-vs-mfa →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001055160

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MFA Financial Inc. (MFA) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $176.8M, operating cash flow of $76.2M, and free cash flow of $76.2M (-61.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, MFA closed FY2025 with $13.05B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$176.8M	$76.2M	$76.2M	$13.05B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$119.3M	$200.1M	$200.1M	$11.41B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$80.2M	$108.7M	$108.7M	—	—

3. MFA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MFA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, MFA Financial Inc. (NYSE: MFA) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $6.80 (+0.15% 1D, market cap $687.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MFA ranks #435 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MFA compare to CLDT and CIM in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), MFA carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 3.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.7%. By comparison, CLDT (Chatham Lodging Trust of) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 46.3x, ROIC 4.5%, cap $697.6M) and CIM (Chimera Investment Corporation) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 9.0%, cap $709.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MFA leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while BFS leads on capital efficiency (51.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MFA?

Per MFA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001055160), MFA Financial Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $176.8M in net income, and $76.2M in free cash flow against $13.05B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MFA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MFA last traded at $6.80 (+0.15% on volume of 3,304,344 shares), positioning the stock -12.93% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.81) and -26.09% below its 200-day simple moving average ($9.20). Across its 52-week range of $6.38 to $10.43, MFA sits at the 10.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.1% ($6.39 to $7.21).

MFA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is MFA's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, MFA Financial Inc. (MFA)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is MFA stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±6.1% event move for MFA, spanning a range between $6.39 and $7.21.

Direct Sub-Reports: MFA RQD Cockpit MFA 12M Forecast MFA Earnings & Move MFA Dividends & DRIP MFA Insiders & 13F MFA Whale Options MFA Profit Sankey MFA News & Why