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MDU Resources Group Inc. (Holding Company) (MDU) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$19.71 +1.13% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.71

MDU Resources Group Inc. (Holding Company) (MDU) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $4.15B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.71 (+0.01%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 25.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MDU)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MDU SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 25.4% FCF Margin ($473.4M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$18.74+1.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$19.00+1.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$19.22+2.5% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$19.71+0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → C- (61)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MDU Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, MDU faces multiple-compression risk if 21.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($19.14) or 200D SMA ($20.59) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($19.98) toward Bear Floor ($15.58).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MDU• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MDU Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 61%NO 39%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

MDU Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (MDU)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on MDU. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MDU Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MDU // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.52%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $19.81H $19.85L $19.57C $19.71VOL 1.69M

RES: $19.16SUP: $17.65SMA50: $19.14SMA200: $20.59

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MDU Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MDU Butterfly Map → + Track MDU →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

15.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MDU today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MDU. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MDU today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MDU)

Materials Rank #48 of 270 ⚔️ KNF vs MDU Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (MDU vs. KNF, USLM, TTAM, LEU)

Industry: Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MDU Resources Group Inc. (Holding Company) (MDU) ranks #48 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #79 by equity capitalization ($4.15B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KNF leads on earnings valuation at 20.8x trailing P/E, while USLM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 48.0% ROIC and 48.9% gross margin. USLM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with MDU at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MDU ACTIVE MDU Resources Group Inc. (Holding Company)	C-	61/100	21.8x	—	4.3%	+1.13%	$4.15B	Benchmark Subject
KNF Knife Riv Holding Co.	B-	70/100	20.8x	18.4%	8.3%	+6.18%	$3.27B	/knf-vs-mdu →
USLM United States Lime & Minerals Inc.	B	73/100	24.3x	48.9%	48.0%	+4.20%	$3.27B	/uslm-vs-mdu →
TTAM Titan America SA	C	62/100	—	—	—	+3.93%	$2.59B	/ttam-vs-mdu →
LEU Centrus Energy Corp. (Class A)	C-	59/100	28.0x	26.2%	36.4%	-1.27%	$2.18B	/leu-vs-mdu →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000067716

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MDU Resources Group Inc. (Holding Company) (MDU) reported GAAP revenue of $1.86B (+6.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.75B , and +3.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $190.4M, operating cash flow of $473.4M, and free cash flow of $473.4M (-5.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, MDU closed FY2025 with $7.62B in total assets against $2.53B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.86B	$190.4M	$473.4M	$473.4M	$7.62B	$2.53B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.75B	$281.1M	$502.3M	$502.3M	$7.04B	$2.13B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.81B	$414.7M	$332.6M	$332.6M	—	—

3. MDU Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MDU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, MDU Resources Group Inc. (Holding Company) (NYSE: MDU) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $19.71 (+1.13% 1D, market cap $4.15B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, MDU ranks #48 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MDU compare to KNF and USLM in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels)), MDU carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.3%. By comparison, KNF (Knife Riv Holding Co.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 20.8x, ROIC 8.3%, cap $3.27B) and USLM (United States Lime & Minerals Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 24.3x, ROIC 48.0%, cap $3.27B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KNF leads on earnings multiple (20.8x) while USLM leads on capital efficiency (48.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MDU?

Per MDU's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000067716), MDU Resources Group Inc. (Holding Company) generated $1.86B in revenue (+6.3% YoY), $190.4M in net income, and $473.4M in free cash flow against $7.62B in total assets and $2.53B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MDU trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MDU last traded at $19.71 (+1.13% on volume of 1,475,831 shares), positioning the stock +2.98% above its 50-day simple moving average ($19.14) and -4.27% below its 200-day simple moving average ($20.59). Across its 52-week range of $18.24 to $22.98, MDU sits at the 31.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 65.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.2% ($19.08 to $20.34).

MDU Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are MDU insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies MDU leadership and institutional positioning as: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION.

Direct Sub-Reports: MDU RQD Cockpit MDU 12M Forecast MDU Earnings & Move MDU Dividends & DRIP MDU Insiders & 13F MDU Whale Options MDU Profit Sankey MDU News & Why