Stock Ratings / Materials / MDU / financials

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MDU Resources Group Inc. (Holding Company) (MDU) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$19.71 +1.13% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.71

MDU Resources Group Inc. (Holding Company) (MDU) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $4.15B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MDU Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MDU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, MDU Resources Group Inc. (Holding Company) (NYSE: MDU) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $19.71 (+1.13% 1D, market cap $4.15B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, MDU ranks #48 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MDU compare to KNF and USLM in the Materials sector?

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Within the Materials sector (Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels)), MDU carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 21.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.3%. By comparison, KNF (Knife Riv Holding Co.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 20.8x, ROIC 8.3%, cap $3.27B) and USLM (United States Lime & Minerals Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 24.3x, ROIC 48.0%, cap $3.27B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KNF leads on earnings multiple (20.8x) while USLM leads on capital efficiency (48.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MDU?

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Per MDU's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000067716), MDU Resources Group Inc. (Holding Company) generated $1.86B in revenue (+6.3% YoY), $190.4M in net income, and $473.4M in free cash flow against $7.62B in total assets and $2.53B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.71 (+0.01%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 25.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MDU)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MDU SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 25.4% FCF Margin ($473.4M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$18.74+1.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$19.00+1.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$19.22+2.5% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$19.71+0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → C- (61)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MDU Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, MDU faces multiple-compression risk if 21.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($19.14) or 200D SMA ($20.59) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($19.98) toward Bear Floor ($15.58).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MDU• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MDU Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 61%NO 39%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How MDU Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$473.4M (25.4% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $1.81B

FY24

Rev $1.75B

FY25

Rev $1.86B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$1.86B	52%	15.6%	$190.4M	$473.4M	4.3%
FY 2024	$1.75B	52%	15.2%	$281.1M	$502.3M	4.4%
FY 2023	$1.81B	52%	12.5%	$414.7M	$332.6M	4.3%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MDU)

✓Walkthrough of MDU's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MDU // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.52%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $19.81H $19.85L $19.57C $19.71VOL 1.69M

RES: $19.16SUP: $17.65SMA50: $19.14SMA200: $20.59

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MDU Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MDU Butterfly Map → + Track MDU →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

15.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MDU today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MDU. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MDU today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MDU)

Materials Rank #48 of 270 ⚔️ KNF vs MDU Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (MDU vs. KNF, USLM, TTAM, LEU)

Industry: Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MDU Resources Group Inc. (Holding Company) (MDU) ranks #48 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #79 by equity capitalization ($4.15B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KNF leads on earnings valuation at 20.8x trailing P/E, while USLM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 48.0% ROIC and 48.9% gross margin. USLM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with MDU at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MDU ACTIVE MDU Resources Group Inc. (Holding Company)	C-	61/100	21.8x	—	4.3%	+1.13%	$4.15B	Benchmark Subject
KNF Knife Riv Holding Co.	B-	70/100	20.8x	18.4%	8.3%	+6.18%	$3.27B	/knf-vs-mdu →
USLM United States Lime & Minerals Inc.	B	73/100	24.3x	48.9%	48.0%	+4.20%	$3.27B	/uslm-vs-mdu →
TTAM Titan America SA	C	62/100	—	—	—	+3.93%	$2.59B	/ttam-vs-mdu →
LEU Centrus Energy Corp. (Class A)	C-	59/100	28.0x	26.2%	36.4%	-1.27%	$2.18B	/leu-vs-mdu →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000067716

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MDU Resources Group Inc. (Holding Company) (MDU) reported GAAP revenue of $1.86B (+6.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.75B , and +3.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $190.4M, operating cash flow of $473.4M, and free cash flow of $473.4M (-5.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, MDU closed FY2025 with $7.62B in total assets against $2.53B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.86B	$190.4M	$473.4M	$473.4M	$7.62B	$2.53B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.75B	$281.1M	$502.3M	$502.3M	$7.04B	$2.13B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.81B	$414.7M	$332.6M	$332.6M	—	—

3. MDU Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MDU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MDU compare to KNF and USLM in the Materials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MDU?

Where is MDU trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MDU last traded at $19.71 (+1.13% on volume of 1,475,831 shares), positioning the stock +2.98% above its 50-day simple moving average ($19.14) and -4.27% below its 200-day simple moving average ($20.59). Across its 52-week range of $18.24 to $22.98, MDU sits at the 31.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 65.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.2% ($19.08 to $20.34).