MARKET WIREReuters • 3h ago
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Why MDIA Stock dropped -8.33% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$0.99 -8.33% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.97
Mediaco Holding Inc. (Class A) (MDIA) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 31/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE E • RED ALERT
Cap $83.2M
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Is MDIA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Mediaco Holding Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: MDIA) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $0.99 (-8.33% 1D, market cap $83.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, MDIA ranks #120 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does MDIA compare to TSQ and SGA in the Communication Services sector?
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Within the Communication Services sector (Broadcasting), MDIA carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -18.7%. By comparison, TSQ (Townsquare Media Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 8.4%, cap $56.2M) and SGA (Saga Communications Inc. (FL) (Class A)) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -6.5%, cap $51.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MDIA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TSQ leads on capital efficiency (8.4% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MDIA?
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Per MDIA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001784254), Mediaco Holding Inc. (Class A) generated $133.3M in revenue (+39.5% YoY), $0 in net income, and $1.2M in free cash flow against $291.1M in total assets and $63.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Communication Services with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.97 (-1.69%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (31/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-12.1% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MDIA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (31/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MDIA SCORES 31/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (26% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.9% FCF Margin ($1.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+7/20 pts (23% of score)
Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$1.03+4.9% Next Q
39
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$1.08+1.9% Next Q
36
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$1.10-10% Next Q
34
CurrentGrade E$0.99-9.4% Hist 90D α
31
Trajectory: E (39) → E (31)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MDIA Turnaround Squeeze
While MDIA currently carries a cautious 31/100 (E) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Communication Services with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.09) and Max Pain ($1.04) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $1.72.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MDIA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MDIA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why MDIA Stock dropped -8.33% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Mediaco Holding Inc. (Class A) (MDIA) dropped -8.33% to $0.99, trading at 41% of its 52-week range ($0.54 – $1.64). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-19% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 41% of its 52-week range ($0.54 – $1.64) with RSI-14 at 34 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $0.99 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $1.2M annual free cash flow.
Live MDIA Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREReuters • 4h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
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MARKET WIRECNBC • 9h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 9h ago
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RISK WATCHReuters • 10h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 12h ago
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MDIA)
- ✓Walkthrough of MDIA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
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MDIA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +11.24%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-10-30O $0.99H $0.99L $0.88C $0.99VOL 7.2K
RES: $1.10SUP: $1.01SMA50: $1.09SMA200: $0.88
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
MDIA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +39.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MDIA today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MDIA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MDIA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MDIA)
Communication Services Rank #120 of 132
⚔️ TSQ vs MDIA Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Communication Services Peer Comparison (MDIA vs. TSQ, SGA, SSP, IHRT)
Industry: Broadcasting (24 Tracked Issuers)Across 132 tracked Communication Services securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mediaco Holding Inc. (Class A) (MDIA) ranks #120 by composite RQD confidence (31/100, grade E) and #97 by equity capitalization ($83.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MDIA leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TSQ leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.4% ROIC and 25.5% gross margin. SGA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with MDIA at 31/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDIA
ACTIVE
Mediaco Holding Inc. (Class A) | E | 31/100 | — | — | -18.7% | -8.33% | $83.2M | Benchmark Subject |
| TSQ Townsquare Media Inc. (Class A) | D- | 42/100 | — | 25.5% | 8.4% | 0.00% | $56.2M | /tsq-vs-mdia → |
| SGA Saga Communications Inc. (FL) (Class A) | C- | 61/100 | — | — | -6.5% | -2.40% | $51.8M | /sga-vs-mdia → |
| SSP E.W. Scripps Company (Class A) | D | 51/100 | — | — | 3.8% | +4.56% | $233.5M | /ssp-vs-mdia → |
| IHRT iHeartMedia Inc. (Class A) | C- | 61/100 | — | — | — | +12.82% | $235.3M | /ihrt-vs-mdia → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001784254In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Mediaco Holding Inc. (Class A) (MDIA) reported GAAP revenue of $133.3M (+39.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $95.6M , and +311.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $2.0M, and free cash flow of $1.2M (+105.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, MDIA closed FY2025 with $291.1M in total assets against $63.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $133.3M | $0 | $2.0M | $1.2M | $291.1M | $63.3M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $95.6M | -$1.3M | -$19.9M | -$21.0M | $325.5M | $70.2M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $32.4M | -$7.6M | -$5.3M | -$5.3M | — | — |
3. MDIA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs MDIA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Mediaco Holding Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: MDIA) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $0.99 (-8.33% 1D, market cap $83.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, MDIA ranks #120 in composite RQD confidence.
How does MDIA compare to TSQ and SGA in the Communication Services sector?
Within the Communication Services sector (Broadcasting), MDIA carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -18.7%. By comparison, TSQ (Townsquare Media Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 8.4%, cap $56.2M) and SGA (Saga Communications Inc. (FL) (Class A)) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -6.5%, cap $51.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MDIA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TSQ leads on capital efficiency (8.4% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MDIA?
Per MDIA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001784254), Mediaco Holding Inc. (Class A) generated $133.3M in revenue (+39.5% YoY), $0 in net income, and $1.2M in free cash flow against $291.1M in total assets and $63.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Communication Services with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is MDIA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
MDIA last traded at $0.99 (-8.33% on volume of 14,885 shares), positioning the stock -9.17% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.09) and +12.50% above its 200-day simple moving average ($0.88). Across its 52-week range of $0.54 to $1.64, MDIA sits at the 40.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $1.11).
MDIA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is MDIA stock moving today?
Why MDIA Stock dropped -8.33% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-19% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.