Stock Ratings / Communication Services / MDIA / earnings

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Mediaco Holding Inc. (Class A) (MDIA) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$0.99 -8.33% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.97

Mediaco Holding Inc. (Class A) (MDIA) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $83.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MDIA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MDIA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Mediaco Holding Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: MDIA) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $0.99 (-8.33% 1D, market cap $83.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, MDIA ranks #99 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MDIA compare to TSQ and SGA in the Communication Services sector?

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Within the Communication Services sector (Broadcasting), MDIA carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -18.7%. By comparison, TSQ (Townsquare Media Inc. (Class A)) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 8.4%, cap $56.2M) and SGA (Saga Communications Inc. (FL) (Class A)) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -6.5%, cap $51.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MDIA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TSQ leads on capital efficiency (8.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MDIA?

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Per MDIA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001784254), Mediaco Holding Inc. (Class A) generated $133.3M in revenue (+39.5% YoY), $0 in net income, and $1.2M in free cash flow against $291.1M in total assets and $63.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Communication Services with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.97 (-1.69%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MDIA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MDIA SCORES 37/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 41% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 44.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.9% FCF Margin ($1.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$1.05+2.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$1.08-2.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$1.05-5.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$0.99-8.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (45) → D- (37)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MDIA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MDIA currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Communication Services with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.09) and Max Pain ($1.04) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $1.72.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MDIA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MDIA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 37%NO 63%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.12 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

MDIA Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 37/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 39.5%

Model Bullish Setup (37/100)Model Risk Weight (63/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$133.3M	$0	$1.2M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$95.6M	-$1.3M	-$21.0M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$32.4M	-$7.6M	-$5.3M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MDIA)

✓Walkthrough of MDIA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MDIA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.12%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN

2026-11-02O $1.08H $1.08L $0.99C $0.99VOL 14.9K

RES: $1.10SUP: $1.01SMA50: $1.09SMA200: $0.88

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MDIA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MDIA Butterfly Map → + Track MDIA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +39.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MDIA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MDIA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MDIA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MDIA)

Communication Services Rank #99 of 132 ⚔️ TSQ vs MDIA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Communication Services Peer Comparison (MDIA vs. TSQ, SGA, SSP, IHRT)

Industry: Broadcasting (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 132 tracked Communication Services securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mediaco Holding Inc. (Class A) (MDIA) ranks #99 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #97 by equity capitalization ($83.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MDIA leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TSQ leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.4% ROIC and 25.5% gross margin. SGA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 50/100 (D) compared with MDIA at 37/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MDIA ACTIVE Mediaco Holding Inc. (Class A)	D-	37/100	—	—	-18.7%	-8.33%	$83.2M	Benchmark Subject
TSQ Townsquare Media Inc. (Class A)	E	30/100	—	25.5%	8.4%	0.00%	$56.2M	/tsq-vs-mdia →
SGA Saga Communications Inc. (FL) (Class A)	D	50/100	—	—	-6.5%	-2.40%	$51.8M	/sga-vs-mdia →
SSP E.W. Scripps Company (Class A)	D-	40/100	—	—	3.8%	+4.56%	$233.5M	/ssp-vs-mdia →
IHRT iHeartMedia Inc. (Class A)	D	46/100	—	—	—	+12.82%	$235.3M	/ihrt-vs-mdia →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001784254

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Mediaco Holding Inc. (Class A) (MDIA) reported GAAP revenue of $133.3M (+39.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $95.6M , and +311.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $2.0M, and free cash flow of $1.2M (+105.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, MDIA closed FY2025 with $291.1M in total assets against $63.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$133.3M	$0	$2.0M	$1.2M	$291.1M	$63.3M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$95.6M	-$1.3M	-$19.9M	-$21.0M	$325.5M	$70.2M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$32.4M	-$7.6M	-$5.3M	-$5.3M	—	—

3. MDIA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MDIA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MDIA compare to TSQ and SGA in the Communication Services sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MDIA?

Where is MDIA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MDIA last traded at $0.99 (-8.33% on volume of 14,885 shares), positioning the stock -9.17% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.09) and +12.50% above its 200-day simple moving average ($0.88). Across its 52-week range of $0.54 to $1.64, MDIA sits at the 40.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $1.11).

MDIA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is MDIA's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Mediaco Holding Inc. (Class A) (MDIA)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is MDIA stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for MDIA, spanning a range between $1 and $1.11.

Direct Sub-Reports: MDIA RQD Cockpit MDIA 12M Forecast MDIA Earnings & Move MDIA Dividends & DRIP MDIA Insiders & 13F MDIA Whale Options MDIA Profit Sankey MDIA News & Why