Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MCRI / options

PENN (57) XHR (53) SHO (67) MLCO (62) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. (MCRI) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$111.76 -0.44% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $111.46

Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. (MCRI) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.00B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $111.46 (-0.27%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 23.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MCRI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MCRI SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 23.6% FCF Margin ($128.4M FCF) & 23.4% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 49% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 35.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 10 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B+$114.34-0.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$113.59-0.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$112.68-0.8% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$111.76+2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B+ (77) → C+ (69)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MCRI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, MCRI faces multiple-compression risk if 19.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 20.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($118.06) or 200D SMA ($112.71) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($117.29) toward Bear Floor ($91.49).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MCRI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MCRI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±4.8%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (MCRI)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for MCRI.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MCRI & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MCRI
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✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MCRI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -5.84%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $112.2H $112.2L $109.5C $111.8VOL 236.4K

RES: $121.0SUP: $106.9SMA50: $118.1SMA200: $112.7

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MCRI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MCRI Butterfly Map → + Track MCRI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

13.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MCRI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MCRI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MCRI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MCRI)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #202 of 1011 ⚔️ PENN vs MCRI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MCRI vs. PENN, XHR, SHO, MLCO)

Industry: Hotels/Resorts (35 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. (MCRI) ranks #202 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #416 by equity capitalization ($2.00B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MLCO leads on earnings valuation at 8.2x trailing P/E, while MCRI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.9% ROIC and 23.4% gross margin. MCRI currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MCRI ACTIVE Monarch Casino & Resort Inc.	C+	69/100	19.8x	23.4%	18.9%	-0.44%	$2.00B	Benchmark Subject
PENN PENN Entertainment Inc.	D+	57/100	—	—	-13.3%	+4.14%	$2.06B	/penn-vs-mcri →
XHR Xenia Hotels & Resorts Inc.	D+	53/100	30.3x	30.6%	8.5%	+0.14%	$1.91B	/xhr-vs-mcri →
SHO Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc.	C+	67/100	—	—	—	+1.41%	$2.41B	/sho-vs-mcri →
MLCO Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited	C	62/100	8.2x	—	10.6%	+2.95%	$1.51B	/mlco-vs-mcri →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000907242

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. (MCRI) reported GAAP revenue of $545.1M (+4.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $522.2M , and +8.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $101.4M, operating cash flow of $164.7M, and free cash flow of $128.4M (+37.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, MCRI closed FY2025 with $712.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$545.1M	$101.4M	$164.7M	$128.4M	$712.8M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$522.2M	$72.8M	$140.7M	$93.3M	$691.6M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$501.5M	$82.4M	$173.0M	$173.0M	—	—

3. MCRI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MCRI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. (NASDAQ: MCRI) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $111.76 (-0.44% 1D, market cap $2.00B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MCRI ranks #202 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MCRI compare to PENN and XHR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), MCRI carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 19.8x, gross margin of 23.4%, and ROIC of 18.9%. By comparison, PENN (PENN Entertainment Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -13.3%, cap $2.06B) and XHR (Xenia Hotels & Resorts Inc.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 30.3x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $1.91B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MLCO leads on earnings multiple (8.2x) while MCRI leads on capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MCRI?

Per MCRI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000907242), Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. generated $545.1M in revenue (+4.4% YoY), $101.4M in net income, and $128.4M in free cash flow against $712.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (23% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MCRI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MCRI last traded at $111.76 (-0.44% on volume of 137,491 shares), positioning the stock -5.34% below its 50-day simple moving average ($118.06) and -0.84% below its 200-day simple moving average ($112.71). Across its 52-week range of $88.34 to $135.93, MCRI sits at the 49.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.8% ($106.40 to $117.12).

MCRI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MCRI's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for MCRI.

Direct Sub-Reports: MCRI RQD Cockpit MCRI 12M Forecast MCRI Earnings & Move MCRI Dividends & DRIP MCRI Insiders & 13F MCRI Whale Options MCRI Profit Sankey MCRI News & Why