Stock Ratings / Financials / MCHB / options

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Mechanics Bancorp (Class A) (MCHB) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$14.67 -1.81% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.59

Mechanics Bancorp (Class A) (MCHB) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.23B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MCHB Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MCHB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Mechanics Bancorp (Class A) (NASDAQ: MCHB) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $14.67 (-1.81% 1D, market cap $3.23B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MCHB ranks #599 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MCHB compare to SBCF and PRK in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), MCHB carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.3%. By comparison, SBCF (Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 22.2x, ROIC 5.3%, cap $3.22B) and PRK (Park National Corporation) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 18.2x, ROIC 13.3%, cap $3.27B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FHB leads on earnings multiple (11.3x) while PRK leads on capital efficiency (13.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MCHB?

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Per MCHB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001518715), Mechanics Bancorp (Class A) generated $49.7M in revenue (+3.3% YoY), $265.7M in net income, and $187.1M in free cash flow against $22.35B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.59 (-0.52%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 376.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MCHB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MCHB SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$14.38-1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$14.23+6.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$15.13-3% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$14.67-0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (45) → D+ (53)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MCHB Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MCHB currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($15.11) and Max Pain ($15.40) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $18.25.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MCHB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MCHB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±4.8%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (MCHB)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for MCHB.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MCHB)

✓Walkthrough of MCHB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MCHB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.73%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $14.94H $14.94L $14.67C $14.67VOL 919.5K

RES: $18.56SUP: $13.70SMA50: $15.11SMA200: $15.24

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MCHB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MCHB Butterfly Map → + Track MCHB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

2.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MCHB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MCHB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MCHB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MCHB)

Financials Rank #599 of 1096 ⚔️ SBCF vs MCHB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MCHB vs. SBCF, PRK, CBU, FHB)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mechanics Bancorp (Class A) (MCHB) ranks #599 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #350 by equity capitalization ($3.23B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FHB leads on earnings valuation at 11.3x trailing P/E, while PRK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.3% ROIC and — gross margin. PRK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with MCHB at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MCHB ACTIVE Mechanics Bancorp (Class A)	D+	53/100	12.2x	—	9.3%	-1.81%	$3.23B	Benchmark Subject
SBCF Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida	C-	61/100	22.2x	—	5.3%	+1.34%	$3.22B	/sbcf-vs-mchb →
PRK Park National Corporation	C+	66/100	18.2x	—	13.3%	+1.53%	$3.27B	/prk-vs-mchb →
CBU Community Financial System Inc.	C	65/100	15.8x	—	10.5%	+0.96%	$3.33B	/cbu-vs-mchb →
FHB First Hawaiian Inc.	C	63/100	11.3x	—	3.0%	+0.87%	$3.12B	/fhb-vs-mchb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001518715

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Mechanics Bancorp (Class A) (MCHB) reported GAAP revenue of $49.7M (+3.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $48.1M ) , GAAP net income of $265.7M, operating cash flow of $193.6M, and free cash flow of $187.1M (-34.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, MCHB closed FY2025 with $22.35B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$49.7M	$265.7M	$193.6M	$187.1M	$22.35B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$48.1M	-$144.3M	$292.3M	$285.9M	$16.49B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$27.5M	$8.0M	$8.0M	—	—

3. MCHB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MCHB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MCHB compare to SBCF and PRK in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MCHB?

Where is MCHB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MCHB last traded at $14.67 (-1.81% on volume of 919,498 shares), positioning the stock -2.91% below its 50-day simple moving average ($15.11) and -3.74% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.24). Across its 52-week range of $12.92 to $17.38, MCHB sits at the 39.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.8% ($13.97 to $15.37).

MCHB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MCHB's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for MCHB.

Direct Sub-Reports: MCHB RQD Cockpit MCHB 12M Forecast MCHB Earnings & Move MCHB Dividends & DRIP MCHB Insiders & 13F MCHB Whale Options MCHB Profit Sankey MCHB News & Why