Stock Ratings / Financials / MCHB / earnings

SBCF (68) PRK (73) CBU (63) FHB (63) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Mechanics Bancorp (Class A) (MCHB) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.8% Move

$14.67 -1.81% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.59

Mechanics Bancorp (Class A) (MCHB) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.23B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.59 (-0.52%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 376.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MCHB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MCHB SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$14.26+0.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$14.35+5.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$15.17-3.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$14.67+0% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MCHB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, MCHB faces multiple-compression risk if 12.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($15.14) or 200D SMA ($15.24) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($14.67) toward Bear Floor ($11.44).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MCHB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MCHB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.8% Swing Band

±$0.70 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

MCHB Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 58/100

Trailing EPS: $1.21 • YoY Revenue Growth: 3.3%

Model Bullish Setup (58/100)Model Risk Weight (42/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$49.7M	$265.7M	$187.1M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$48.1M	-$144.3M	$285.9M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	-$27.5M	$8.0M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MCHB)

✓Walkthrough of MCHB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MCHB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.68%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $14.60H $14.72L $14.49C $14.67VOL 881.9K

RES: $18.54SUP: $13.73SMA50: $15.14SMA200: $15.24

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MCHB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MCHB Butterfly Map → + Track MCHB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

2.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MCHB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MCHB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MCHB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MCHB)

Financials Rank #604 of 1096 ⚔️ SBCF vs MCHB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MCHB vs. SBCF, PRK, CBU, FHB)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mechanics Bancorp (Class A) (MCHB) ranks #604 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #350 by equity capitalization ($3.23B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FHB leads on earnings valuation at 11.3x trailing P/E, while PRK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.3% ROIC and — gross margin. PRK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with MCHB at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MCHB ACTIVE Mechanics Bancorp (Class A)	D+	58/100	12.2x	—	9.3%	-1.81%	$3.23B	Benchmark Subject
SBCF Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida	C+	68/100	22.2x	—	5.3%	+1.34%	$3.22B	/sbcf-vs-mchb →
PRK Park National Corporation	B	73/100	18.2x	—	13.3%	+1.53%	$3.27B	/prk-vs-mchb →
CBU Community Financial System Inc.	C	63/100	15.8x	—	10.5%	+0.96%	$3.33B	/cbu-vs-mchb →
FHB First Hawaiian Inc.	C	63/100	11.3x	—	3.0%	+0.87%	$3.12B	/fhb-vs-mchb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001518715

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Mechanics Bancorp (Class A) (MCHB) reported GAAP revenue of $49.7M (+3.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $48.1M ) , GAAP net income of $265.7M, operating cash flow of $193.6M, and free cash flow of $187.1M (-34.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, MCHB closed FY2025 with $22.35B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$49.7M	$265.7M	$193.6M	$187.1M	$22.35B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$48.1M	-$144.3M	$292.3M	$285.9M	$16.49B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$27.5M	$8.0M	$8.0M	—	—

3. MCHB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MCHB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Mechanics Bancorp (Class A) (NASDAQ: MCHB) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $14.67 (-1.81% 1D, market cap $3.23B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MCHB ranks #604 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MCHB compare to SBCF and PRK in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), MCHB carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.3%. By comparison, SBCF (Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 22.2x, ROIC 5.3%, cap $3.22B) and PRK (Park National Corporation) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 18.2x, ROIC 13.3%, cap $3.27B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FHB leads on earnings multiple (11.3x) while PRK leads on capital efficiency (13.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MCHB?

Per MCHB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001518715), Mechanics Bancorp (Class A) generated $49.7M in revenue (+3.3% YoY), $265.7M in net income, and $187.1M in free cash flow against $22.35B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MCHB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MCHB last traded at $14.67 (-1.81% on volume of 919,498 shares), positioning the stock -3.10% below its 50-day simple moving average ($15.14) and -3.74% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.24). Across its 52-week range of $12.99 to $17.38, MCHB sits at the 38.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.8% ($13.97 to $15.37).

MCHB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is MCHB's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Mechanics Bancorp (Class A) (MCHB)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is MCHB stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±4.8% event move for MCHB, spanning a range between $13.97 and $15.37.

Direct Sub-Reports: MCHB RQD Cockpit MCHB 12M Forecast MCHB Earnings & Move MCHB Dividends & DRIP MCHB Insiders & 13F MCHB Whale Options MCHB Profit Sankey MCHB News & Why