Stock Ratings / Financials / MCHB / forecast

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Mechanics Bancorp (Class A) (MCHB) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$14.67 -1.81% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.59

Mechanics Bancorp (Class A) (MCHB) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.23B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.59 (-0.52%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 376.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MCHB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MCHB SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$14.26+0.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$14.35+5.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$15.17-3.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$14.67+0% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MCHB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, MCHB faces multiple-compression risk if 12.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($15.14) or 200D SMA ($15.24) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($14.67) toward Bear Floor ($11.44).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MCHB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MCHB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MCHB Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $14.67: 681.7 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $11.44

$7,798

$-2,202 (-22.0%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $14.67

$10,000

+$0 (+0.0%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $18.25

$12,440

+$2,440 (+24.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$15	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$17	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$13	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MCHB)

✓Walkthrough of MCHB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MCHB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.68%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $14.60H $14.72L $14.49C $14.67VOL 881.9K

RES: $18.54SUP: $13.73SMA50: $15.14SMA200: $15.24

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MCHB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MCHB Butterfly Map → + Track MCHB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

2.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MCHB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MCHB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MCHB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MCHB)

Financials Rank #604 of 1096 ⚔️ SBCF vs MCHB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MCHB vs. SBCF, PRK, CBU, FHB)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mechanics Bancorp (Class A) (MCHB) ranks #604 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #350 by equity capitalization ($3.23B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FHB leads on earnings valuation at 11.3x trailing P/E, while PRK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.3% ROIC and — gross margin. PRK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with MCHB at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MCHB ACTIVE Mechanics Bancorp (Class A)	D+	58/100	12.2x	—	9.3%	-1.81%	$3.23B	Benchmark Subject
SBCF Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida	C+	68/100	22.2x	—	5.3%	+1.34%	$3.22B	/sbcf-vs-mchb →
PRK Park National Corporation	B	73/100	18.2x	—	13.3%	+1.53%	$3.27B	/prk-vs-mchb →
CBU Community Financial System Inc.	C	63/100	15.8x	—	10.5%	+0.96%	$3.33B	/cbu-vs-mchb →
FHB First Hawaiian Inc.	C	63/100	11.3x	—	3.0%	+0.87%	$3.12B	/fhb-vs-mchb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001518715

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Mechanics Bancorp (Class A) (MCHB) reported GAAP revenue of $49.7M (+3.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $48.1M ) , GAAP net income of $265.7M, operating cash flow of $193.6M, and free cash flow of $187.1M (-34.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, MCHB closed FY2025 with $22.35B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$49.7M	$265.7M	$193.6M	$187.1M	$22.35B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$48.1M	-$144.3M	$292.3M	$285.9M	$16.49B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$27.5M	$8.0M	$8.0M	—	—

3. MCHB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MCHB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Mechanics Bancorp (Class A) (NASDAQ: MCHB) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $14.67 (-1.81% 1D, market cap $3.23B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MCHB ranks #604 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MCHB compare to SBCF and PRK in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), MCHB carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.3%. By comparison, SBCF (Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 22.2x, ROIC 5.3%, cap $3.22B) and PRK (Park National Corporation) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 18.2x, ROIC 13.3%, cap $3.27B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FHB leads on earnings multiple (11.3x) while PRK leads on capital efficiency (13.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MCHB?

Per MCHB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001518715), Mechanics Bancorp (Class A) generated $49.7M in revenue (+3.3% YoY), $265.7M in net income, and $187.1M in free cash flow against $22.35B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MCHB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MCHB last traded at $14.67 (-1.81% on volume of 919,498 shares), positioning the stock -3.10% below its 50-day simple moving average ($15.14) and -3.74% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.24). Across its 52-week range of $12.99 to $17.38, MCHB sits at the 38.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.8% ($13.97 to $15.37).

MCHB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MCHB's 12-month stock price target?

Mechanics Bancorp (Class A) (MCHB) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $14.67 (+0% from $14.67), with a bull-case target of $18.25 and a bear-case floor of $11.44.

Is MCHB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates MCHB D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 58/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: MCHB RQD Cockpit MCHB 12M Forecast MCHB Earnings & Move MCHB Dividends & DRIP MCHB Insiders & 13F MCHB Whale Options MCHB Profit Sankey MCHB News & Why