Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / LOCO / forecast

DIN (67) KRUS (18) BRCB (36) PTLO (43) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. (LOCO) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$15.30 -0.45% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.26

El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. (LOCO) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $467.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on LOCO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LOCO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: LOCO) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $15.30 (-0.45% 1D, market cap $467.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, LOCO ranks #229 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LOCO compare to DIN and KRUS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), LOCO carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.7%. By comparison, DIN (Dine Brands Global Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 26.0x, ROIC —, cap $445.1M) and KRUS (Kura Sushi USA Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (18/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.9%, cap $424.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, LOCO leads on earnings multiple (17.7x) while LOCO leads on capital efficiency (11.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LOCO?

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Per LOCO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001606366), El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $26.5M in net income, and $25.4M in free cash flow against $606.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.26 (-0.27%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 0.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LOCO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY LOCO SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (21% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 73% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 54.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-8 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B+$15.32+4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$15.94-8.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$14.58+4.9% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$15.30+1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B+ (74) → C+ (66)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the LOCO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, LOCO faces multiple-compression risk if 17.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($14.98) or 200D SMA ($14.11) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($15.85) toward Bear Floor ($12.36).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LOCO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “LOCO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your LOCO Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $15.30: 653.6 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $12.36

$8,078

$-1,922 (-19.2%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $15.85

$10,359

+$359 (+3.6%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $18.70

$12,222

+$2,222 (+22.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$16	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$18	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$14	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (LOCO Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

LOCO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +17.69%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $15.01H $15.37L $15.01C $15.30VOL 174.1K

RES: $16.44SUP: $13.35SMA50: $14.98SMA200: $14.11

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LOCO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LOCO Butterfly Map → + Track LOCO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

10.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LOCO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LOCO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LOCO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LOCO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #229 of 1011 ⚔️ DIN vs LOCO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (LOCO vs. DIN, KRUS, BRCB, PTLO)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. (LOCO) ranks #229 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #595 by equity capitalization ($467.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LOCO leads on earnings valuation at 17.7x trailing P/E, while LOCO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.7% ROIC and — gross margin. DIN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with LOCO at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
LOCO ACTIVE El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc.	C+	66/100	17.7x	—	11.7%	-0.45%	$467.8M	Benchmark Subject
DIN Dine Brands Global Inc.	C+	67/100	26.0x	40.9%	—	+1.00%	$445.1M	/din-vs-loco →
KRUS Kura Sushi USA Inc. (Class A)	E	18/100	—	—	-1.9%	+0.09%	$424.4M	/krus-vs-loco →
BRCB Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A)	D-	36/100	—	—	1.6%	-1.79%	$530.3M	/brcb-vs-loco →
PTLO Portillo's Inc. (Class A)	D-	43/100	17.9x	—	4.9%	-1.81%	$376.7M	/ptlo-vs-loco →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001606366

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. (LOCO) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $26.5M, operating cash flow of $48.1M, and free cash flow of $25.4M (-8.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, LOCO closed FY2025 with $606.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$26.5M	$48.1M	$25.4M	$606.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-25	$0	$25.7M	$46.8M	$27.7M	$592.0M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-27	$0	$25.6M	$40.7M	$40.7M	—	—

3. LOCO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LOCO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does LOCO compare to DIN and KRUS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LOCO?

Where is LOCO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LOCO last traded at $15.30 (-0.45% on volume of 178,896 shares), positioning the stock +2.14% above its 50-day simple moving average ($14.98) and +8.43% above its 200-day simple moving average ($14.11). Across its 52-week range of $9.69 to $17.40, LOCO sits at the 72.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.5% ($14.31 to $16.29).

LOCO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is LOCO's 12-month stock price target?

El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. (LOCO) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $15.85 (+3.6% from $15.30), with a bull-case target of $18.7 and a bear-case floor of $12.36.

Is LOCO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates LOCO C+ (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 66/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: LOCO RQD Cockpit LOCO 12M Forecast LOCO Earnings & Move LOCO Dividends & DRIP LOCO Insiders & 13F LOCO Whale Options LOCO Profit Sankey LOCO News & Why