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Lincoln Educational Services Corporation (LINC) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$22.13 +1.89% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.16

Lincoln Educational Services Corporation (LINC) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $702.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.16 (+0.15%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LINC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY LINC SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.94 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 12% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 33.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$23.49-5.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$22.22-2.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$21.68+2.1% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$22.13+0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (67) → C- (59)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the LINC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, LINC faces multiple-compression risk if 35.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 57.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($23.53) or 200D SMA ($35.90) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($22.23) toward Bear Floor ($17.34).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LINC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “LINC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How LINC Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $378.1M

FY24

Rev $440.1M

FY25

Rev $518.2M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$518.2M	60.4%	5.8%	$20.0M	-$27.3M	14%
FY 2024	$440.1M	58.7%	3.4%	$9.9M	-$27.6M	10.1%
FY 2023	$378.1M	60.4%	8.8%	$26.0M	$25.6M	14%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LINC)

✓Walkthrough of LINC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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LINC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -46.21%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $21.95H $22.13L $20.31C $22.13VOL 701.6K

RES: $62.56SUP: $11.62SMA50: $23.53SMA200: $35.90

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LINC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LINC Butterfly Map → + Track LINC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

27.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +17.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LINC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LINC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LINC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LINC)

Real Estate Rank #20 of 51 ⚔️ APEI vs LINC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Real Estate Peer Comparison (LINC vs. APEI, PXED, GOTU, AFYA)

Industry: Other Consumer Services (73 Tracked Issuers)

Across 51 tracked Real Estate securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Lincoln Educational Services Corporation (LINC) ranks #20 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #20 by equity capitalization ($702.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, APEI leads on earnings valuation at 25.7x trailing P/E, while APEI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.6% ROIC and 54.2% gross margin. APEI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with LINC at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
LINC ACTIVE Lincoln Educational Services Corporation	C-	59/100	35.1x	60.4%	14.0%	+1.89%	$702.0M	Benchmark Subject
APEI American Public Education Inc.	C+	69/100	25.7x	54.2%	17.6%	+0.64%	$810.8M	/apei-vs-linc →
PXED Phoenix Education Partners Inc.	D+	52/100	—	—	—	+2.30%	$896.5M	/pxed-vs-linc →
GOTU Gaotu Techedu Inc.	D-	43/100	—	67.4%	-35.0%	-3.81%	$541.3M	/gotu-vs-linc →
AFYA Afya Limited (Class A)	D+	58/100	—	—	—	-0.68%	$953.2M	/afya-vs-linc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001286613

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Lincoln Educational Services Corporation (LINC) reported GAAP revenue of $518.2M (+17.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $440.1M , and +37.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $20.0M, operating cash flow of $59.3M, and free cash flow of -$27.3M (+0.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, LINC closed FY2025 with $493.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.94, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$518.2M	$20.0M	$59.3M	-$27.3M	$493.2M	$0
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$440.1M	$9.9M	$29.3M	-$27.6M	$436.6M	$0
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$378.1M	$26.0M	$25.6M	$25.6M	—	—

3. LINC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LINC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Lincoln Educational Services Corporation (NASDAQ: LINC) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $22.13 (+1.89% 1D, market cap $702.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 51 tracked Real Estate issuers, LINC ranks #20 in composite RQD confidence.

How does LINC compare to APEI and PXED in the Real Estate sector?

Within the Real Estate sector (Other Consumer Services), LINC carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 35.1x, gross margin of 60.4%, and ROIC of 14.0%. By comparison, APEI (American Public Education Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 25.7x, ROIC 17.6%, cap $810.8M) and PXED (Phoenix Education Partners Inc.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $896.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, APEI leads on earnings multiple (25.7x) while APEI leads on capital efficiency (17.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LINC?

Per LINC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001286613), Lincoln Educational Services Corporation generated $518.2M in revenue (+17.8% YoY), $20.0M in net income, and -$27.3M in free cash flow against $493.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Real Estate with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is LINC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LINC last traded at $22.13 (+1.89% on volume of 522,719 shares), positioning the stock -5.95% below its 50-day simple moving average ($23.53) and -38.36% below its 200-day simple moving average ($35.90). Across its 52-week range of $17.29 to $56.34, LINC sits at the 12.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.1% ($20.12 to $24.14).

LINC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Lincoln Educational Services Corporation (LINC)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), LINC converted $518.2M of revenue into a 60.4% gross margin, 5.8% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: LINC RQD Cockpit LINC 12M Forecast LINC Earnings & Move LINC Dividends & DRIP LINC Insiders & 13F LINC Whale Options LINC Profit Sankey LINC News & Why