Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / LGIH / forecast

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LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$43.74 +5.12% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $44.06

LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.02B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $44.06 (+0.73%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LGIH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY LGIH SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (34% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.4% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 31% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 48.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 4.7% operating margin leave 15 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$43.82-1.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$43.01-1.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$42.47+3% Next Q

Current

Grade D$43.74-6.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (52) → D (44)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a LGIH Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While LGIH currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($48.61) and Max Pain ($45.93) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $69.56.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LGIH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “LGIH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your LGIH Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $43.74: 228.6 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $31.96

$7,307

$-2,693 (-26.9%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $40.98

$9,369

$-631 (-6.3%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $69.56

$15,903

+$5,903 (+59.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$43	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$65	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$36	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LGIH)

✓Walkthrough of LGIH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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LGIH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.68%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $44.47H $45.53L $43.46C $43.74VOL 262.2K

RES: $45.38SUP: $37.64SMA50: $48.61SMA200: $50.24

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LGIH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LGIH Butterfly Map → + Track LGIH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

5.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -22.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LGIH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LGIH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LGIH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LGIH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #760 of 1011 ⚔️ DFH vs LGIH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (LGIH vs. DFH, LEGH, CCS, HOV)

Industry: Homebuilding (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) ranks #760 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #510 by equity capitalization ($1.02B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DFH leads on earnings valuation at 4.2x trailing P/E, while DFH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.3% ROIC and — gross margin. LEGH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with LGIH at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
LGIH ACTIVE LGI Homes Inc.	D	44/100	14.0x	20.7%	3.0%	+5.12%	$1.02B	Benchmark Subject
DFH Dream Finders Homes Inc. (Class A)	D	51/100	4.2x	—	15.3%	+3.29%	$909.0M	/dfh-vs-lgih →
LEGH Legacy Housing Corporation (TX)	C+	69/100	16.5x	—	7.4%	+1.87%	$688.0M	/legh-vs-lgih →
CCS Century Communities Inc.	D+	57/100	10.3x	—	5.7%	-5.52%	$1.52B	/ccs-vs-lgih →
HOV Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (Class A)	D	51/100	—	—	—	+0.90%	$610.6M	/hov-vs-lgih →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001580670

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) reported GAAP revenue of $1.71B (-22.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.20B , and -27.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $72.6M, operating cash flow of -$140.0M, and free cash flow of -$140.9M (+3.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, LGIH closed FY2025 with $3.93B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.60, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.71B	$72.6M	-$140.0M	-$140.9M	$3.93B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.20B	$196.1M	-$143.7M	-$145.7M	$3.76B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.36B	$199.2M	-$57.0M	-$57.0M	—	—

3. LGIH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LGIH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, LGI Homes Inc. (NASDAQ: LGIH) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $43.74 (+5.12% 1D, market cap $1.02B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, LGIH ranks #760 in composite RQD confidence.

How does LGIH compare to DFH and LEGH in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), LGIH carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.0x, gross margin of 20.7%, and ROIC of 3.0%. By comparison, DFH (Dream Finders Homes Inc. (Class A)) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 4.2x, ROIC 15.3%, cap $909.0M) and LEGH (Legacy Housing Corporation (TX)) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 16.5x, ROIC 7.4%, cap $688.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, DFH leads on earnings multiple (4.2x) while DFH leads on capital efficiency (15.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LGIH?

Per LGIH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001580670), LGI Homes Inc. generated $1.71B in revenue (-22.6% YoY), $72.6M in net income, and -$140.9M in free cash flow against $3.93B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is LGIH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LGIH last traded at $43.74 (+5.12% on volume of 330,829 shares), positioning the stock -10.02% below its 50-day simple moving average ($48.61) and -12.94% below its 200-day simple moving average ($50.24). Across its 52-week range of $33.55 to $66.25, LGIH sits at the 31.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.4% ($38.75 to $48.73).

LGIH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is LGIH's 12-month stock price target?

LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $40.98 (-6.3% from $43.74), with a bull-case target of $69.56 and a bear-case floor of $31.96.

Is LGIH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates LGIH D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 44/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: LGIH RQD Cockpit LGIH 12M Forecast LGIH Earnings & Move LGIH Dividends & DRIP LGIH Insiders & 13F LGIH Whale Options LGIH Profit Sankey LGIH News & Why