Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / KPLT / options

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Katapult Holdings Inc. (KPLT) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$10.38 -17.09% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.04

Katapult Holdings Inc. (KPLT) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.06B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on KPLT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is KPLT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Katapult Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: KPLT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $10.38 (-17.09% 1D, market cap $1.06B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, KPLT ranks #603 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does KPLT compare to UPBD and PRG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), KPLT carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 17.7%, and ROIC of -0.8%. By comparison, UPBD (Upbound Group Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 30.7%, cap $1.16B) and PRG (PROG Holdings Inc.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 8.9x, ROIC 37.3%, cap $1.31B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRG leads on earnings multiple (8.9x) while PRG leads on capital efficiency (37.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KPLT?

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Per KPLT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001785424), Katapult Holdings Inc. generated $291.8M in revenue (+18.0% YoY), $1.4M in net income, and -$12.0M in free cash flow against $107.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.04 (-3.27%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for KPLT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY KPLT SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (33% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.04 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$4.75+53.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$7.27+5.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$7.69+35% Next Q

Current

Grade D$10.38-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (40) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a KPLT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While KPLT currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.99) and Max Pain ($10.90) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $13.31.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $KPLT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “KPLT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±12.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (KPLT)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for KPLT.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring KPLT)

✓Walkthrough of KPLT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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KPLT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +52.42%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $9.10H $12.52L $9.10C $10.38VOL 1.05M

RES: $12.80SUP: $3.37SMA50: $6.99SMA200: $6.76

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

KPLT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 KPLT Butterfly Map → + Track KPLT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +18.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on KPLT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for KPLT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for KPLT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (KPLT)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #603 of 1011 ⚔️ UPBD vs KPLT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (KPLT vs. UPBD, PRG, ARLO, CTOS)

Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Katapult Holdings Inc. (KPLT) ranks #603 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #503 by equity capitalization ($1.06B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PRG leads on earnings valuation at 8.9x trailing P/E, while PRG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 37.3% ROIC and — gross margin. UPBD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with KPLT at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
KPLT ACTIVE Katapult Holdings Inc.	D	48/100	—	17.7%	-0.8%	-17.09%	$1.06B	Benchmark Subject
UPBD Upbound Group Inc.	B-	70/100	16.0x	48.4%	30.7%	+3.60%	$1.16B	/upbd-vs-kplt →
PRG PROG Holdings Inc.	C+	69/100	8.9x	—	37.3%	+3.79%	$1.31B	/prg-vs-kplt →
ARLO Arlo Technologies Inc.	C	62/100	106.3x	44.0%	6.0%	-1.90%	$1.59B	/arlo-vs-kplt →
CTOS Custom Truck One Source Inc.	C-	61/100	—	28.5%	4.1%	-2.93%	$2.48B	/ctos-vs-kplt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001785424

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Katapult Holdings Inc. (KPLT) reported GAAP revenue of $291.8M (+18.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $247.2M , and +31.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.4M, operating cash flow of -$11.9M, and free cash flow of -$12.0M (+63.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, KPLT closed FY2025 with $107.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.04, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$291.8M	$1.4M	-$11.9M	-$12.0M	$107.9M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$247.2M	-$25.9M	-$32.6M	-$32.6M	$93.2M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$221.6M	-$36.7M	-$17.4M	-$17.4M	—	—

3. KPLT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is KPLT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does KPLT compare to UPBD and PRG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KPLT?

Where is KPLT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

KPLT last traded at $10.38 (-17.09% on volume of 545,901 shares), positioning the stock +48.50% above its 50-day simple moving average ($6.99) and +53.55% above its 200-day simple moving average ($6.76). Across its 52-week range of $3.85 to $12.68, KPLT sits at the 74.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 71.0 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($9.08 to $11.68).

KPLT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is KPLT's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for KPLT.

Direct Sub-Reports: KPLT RQD Cockpit KPLT 12M Forecast KPLT Earnings & Move KPLT Dividends & DRIP KPLT Insiders & 13F KPLT Whale Options KPLT Profit Sankey KPLT News & Why