Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
FRED Regime × Technicals: 28% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 33.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)
Even with a 63/100 (C) score, KALU faces multiple-compression risk if 17.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($148.52) or 200D SMA ($153.33) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($122.53) toward Bear Floor ($95.57).
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) slipped -0.84% to $119.83, trading at 28% of its 52-week range ($88 – $199.89). Solid 13% profit margin (8% return on capital), mixed timing at 17x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
Third Avenue Management, an investment management company, released its third-quarter 2026 investor letter for the “Third Avenue Small-Cap Value Fund”. The letter can be downloaded here. The Third Avenue Small-Cap Value
Third Avenue Management, an investment management company, released its third-quarter 2026 investor letter for the “Third Avenue Small-Cap Value Fund”. The letter can be downloaded here. The Third Avenue Small-Cap Value
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Pricing power in packaging through 2030 gives the company room to capitalize on multiyear aerospace demand.
UBS analyst Alex Stansbury maintains Kaiser Aluminum (NASDAQ:KALU) with a Buy and lowers the price target from $184 to $158.
Pre-Market Stock Futures: Futures are trading higher as we head into a new week that will finish out October, with traders trying to rally stocks after last week’s losing effort. With Halloween on Saturday, this week may
Barclays analyst Richard Garchitorena maintains Kaiser Aluminum (NASDAQ:KALU) with a Overweight and lowers the price target from $180 to $155.
Analysts upgraded SAFE, CNOB, LMT and more.
JP Morgan analyst Bill Peterson upgrades Kaiser Aluminum (NASDAQ:KALU) from Underweight to Neutral and lowers the price target from $146 to $140.
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +11.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on KALU today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for KALU. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) ranks #132 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #213 by equity capitalization ($1.96B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KALU leads on earnings valuation at 17.3x trailing P/E, while KALU leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.9% ROIC and 13.1% gross margin. KALU currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 63/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KALU
ACTIVE
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation | C | 63/100 | 17.3x | 13.1% | 7.9% | -0.84% | $1.96B | Benchmark Subject |
| PRLB Proto Labs Inc. | D | 48/100 | 87.4x | 44.5% | 3.5% | -14.60% | $1.86B | /prlb-vs-kalu → |
| HLIO Helios Technologies Inc. | C- | 60/100 | 46.5x | 32.3% | 4.7% | +0.90% | $2.25B | /hlio-vs-kalu → |
| RYZ Ryerson Holding Corporation | D+ | 54/100 | — | 17.1% | -3.4% | +4.48% | $1.60B | /ryz-vs-kalu → |
| TSAT Telesat Corporation and Class B Variable Voting Shares (Class A) | D | 48/100 | — | — | — | -6.65% | $1.54B | /tsat-vs-kalu → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) reported GAAP revenue of $3.37B (+11.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.02B , and +9.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $113.0M, operating cash flow of $111.4M, and free cash flow of $111.4M (-33.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, KALU closed FY2025 with $2.56B in total assets against $1.06B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.70, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $3.37B | $113.0M | $111.4M | $111.4M | $2.56B | $1.06B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $3.02B | $47.0M | $167.1M | $167.1M | $2.41B | $1.04B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $3.09B | $47.0M | $211.9M | $211.9M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-01, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (NASDAQ: KALU) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $119.83 (-0.84% 1D, market cap $1.96B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, KALU ranks #132 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), KALU carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.3x, gross margin of 13.1%, and ROIC of 7.9%. By comparison, PRLB (Proto Labs Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 87.4x, ROIC 3.5%, cap $1.86B) and HLIO (Helios Technologies Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 46.5x, ROIC 4.7%, cap $2.25B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KALU leads on earnings multiple (17.3x) while KALU leads on capital efficiency (7.9% ROIC).
Per KALU's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000811596), Kaiser Aluminum Corporation generated $3.37B in revenue (+11.5% YoY), $113.0M in net income, and $111.4M in free cash flow against $2.56B in total assets and $1.06B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
KALU last traded at $119.83 (-0.84% on volume of 495,391 shares), positioning the stock -19.32% below its 50-day simple moving average ($148.52) and -21.85% below its 200-day simple moving average ($153.33). Across its 52-week range of $88.00 to $199.89, KALU sits at the 28.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.2% ($107.61 to $132.05).
Why KALU Stock slipped -0.84% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid 13% profit margin (8% return on capital), mixed timing at 17x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.