Stock Ratings / Industrials / KALU / earnings

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Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±10.2% Move

$119.83 -0.84% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $119.42

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.96B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $119.42 (-0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 3.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for KALU)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY KALU SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 28% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 33.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$151.51-2.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$147.25-27.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$107.28+11.7% Next Q

Current

Grade C$119.83+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (71) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the KALU Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, KALU faces multiple-compression risk if 17.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($148.52) or 200D SMA ($153.33) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($122.53) toward Bear Floor ($95.57).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $KALU• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “KALU Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±10.2% Swing Band

±$12.22 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

KALU Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 63/100

Trailing EPS: $6.91 • YoY Revenue Growth: 11.5%

Model Bullish Setup (63/100)Model Risk Weight (37/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$3.37B	$113.0M	$111.4M	13.1%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$3.02B	$47.0M	$167.1M	11.8%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$3.09B	$47.0M	$211.9M	13.1%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating KALU & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on KALU
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

KALU // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -29.69%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $116.1H $119.8L $114.0C $119.8VOL 459.2K

RES: $206.1SUP: $101.1SMA50: $148.5SMA200: $153.3

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

KALU Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 KALU Butterfly Map → + Track KALU →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

10.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on KALU today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for KALU. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for KALU today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (KALU)

Industrials Rank #132 of 485 ⚔️ PRLB vs KALU Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (KALU vs. PRLB, HLIO, RYZ, TSAT)

Industry: Metal Fabrications (47 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) ranks #132 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #213 by equity capitalization ($1.96B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KALU leads on earnings valuation at 17.3x trailing P/E, while KALU leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.9% ROIC and 13.1% gross margin. KALU currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
KALU ACTIVE Kaiser Aluminum Corporation	C	63/100	17.3x	13.1%	7.9%	-0.84%	$1.96B	Benchmark Subject
PRLB Proto Labs Inc.	D	48/100	87.4x	44.5%	3.5%	-14.60%	$1.86B	/prlb-vs-kalu →
HLIO Helios Technologies Inc.	C-	60/100	46.5x	32.3%	4.7%	+0.90%	$2.25B	/hlio-vs-kalu →
RYZ Ryerson Holding Corporation	D+	54/100	—	17.1%	-3.4%	+4.48%	$1.60B	/ryz-vs-kalu →
TSAT Telesat Corporation and Class B Variable Voting Shares (Class A)	D	48/100	—	—	—	-6.65%	$1.54B	/tsat-vs-kalu →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000811596

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) reported GAAP revenue of $3.37B (+11.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.02B , and +9.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $113.0M, operating cash flow of $111.4M, and free cash flow of $111.4M (-33.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, KALU closed FY2025 with $2.56B in total assets against $1.06B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.70, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$3.37B	$113.0M	$111.4M	$111.4M	$2.56B	$1.06B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$3.02B	$47.0M	$167.1M	$167.1M	$2.41B	$1.04B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$3.09B	$47.0M	$211.9M	$211.9M	—	—

3. KALU Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is KALU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (NASDAQ: KALU) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $119.83 (-0.84% 1D, market cap $1.96B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, KALU ranks #132 in composite RQD confidence.

How does KALU compare to PRLB and HLIO in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), KALU carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.3x, gross margin of 13.1%, and ROIC of 7.9%. By comparison, PRLB (Proto Labs Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 87.4x, ROIC 3.5%, cap $1.86B) and HLIO (Helios Technologies Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 46.5x, ROIC 4.7%, cap $2.25B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KALU leads on earnings multiple (17.3x) while KALU leads on capital efficiency (7.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KALU?

Per KALU's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000811596), Kaiser Aluminum Corporation generated $3.37B in revenue (+11.5% YoY), $113.0M in net income, and $111.4M in free cash flow against $2.56B in total assets and $1.06B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is KALU trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

KALU last traded at $119.83 (-0.84% on volume of 495,391 shares), positioning the stock -19.32% below its 50-day simple moving average ($148.52) and -21.85% below its 200-day simple moving average ($153.33). Across its 52-week range of $88.00 to $199.89, KALU sits at the 28.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.2% ($107.61 to $132.05).

KALU Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is KALU's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is KALU stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±10.2% event move for KALU, spanning a range between $107.61 and $132.05.

Direct Sub-Reports: KALU RQD Cockpit KALU 12M Forecast KALU Earnings & Move KALU Dividends & DRIP KALU Insiders & 13F KALU Whale Options KALU Profit Sankey KALU News & Why