Stock Ratings / Industrials / KALU / financials

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Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$119.83 -0.84% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $119.42

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.96B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $119.42 (-0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 3.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for KALU)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY KALU SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 28% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 33.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$151.51-2.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$147.25-27.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$107.28+11.7% Next Q

Current

Grade C$119.83+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (71) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the KALU Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, KALU faces multiple-compression risk if 17.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($148.52) or 200D SMA ($153.33) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($122.53) toward Bear Floor ($95.57).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $KALU• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “KALU Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How KALU Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$111.4M (3.3% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $3.09B

FY24

Rev $3.02B

FY25

Rev $3.37B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$3.37B	13.1%	5.6%	$113.0M	$111.4M	7.9%
FY 2024	$3.02B	11.8%	3.7%	$47.0M	$167.1M	5%
FY 2023	$3.09B	13.1%	4%	$47.0M	$211.9M	7.9%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring KALU)

✓Walkthrough of KALU's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

KALU // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -29.69%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $116.1H $119.8L $114.0C $119.8VOL 459.2K

RES: $206.1SUP: $101.1SMA50: $148.5SMA200: $153.3

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

KALU Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 KALU Butterfly Map → + Track KALU →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

10.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on KALU today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for KALU. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for KALU today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (KALU)

Industrials Rank #132 of 485 ⚔️ PRLB vs KALU Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (KALU vs. PRLB, HLIO, RYZ, TSAT)

Industry: Metal Fabrications (47 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) ranks #132 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #213 by equity capitalization ($1.96B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KALU leads on earnings valuation at 17.3x trailing P/E, while KALU leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.9% ROIC and 13.1% gross margin. KALU currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
KALU ACTIVE Kaiser Aluminum Corporation	C	63/100	17.3x	13.1%	7.9%	-0.84%	$1.96B	Benchmark Subject
PRLB Proto Labs Inc.	D	48/100	87.4x	44.5%	3.5%	-14.60%	$1.86B	/prlb-vs-kalu →
HLIO Helios Technologies Inc.	C-	60/100	46.5x	32.3%	4.7%	+0.90%	$2.25B	/hlio-vs-kalu →
RYZ Ryerson Holding Corporation	D+	54/100	—	17.1%	-3.4%	+4.48%	$1.60B	/ryz-vs-kalu →
TSAT Telesat Corporation and Class B Variable Voting Shares (Class A)	D	48/100	—	—	—	-6.65%	$1.54B	/tsat-vs-kalu →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000811596

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) reported GAAP revenue of $3.37B (+11.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.02B , and +9.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $113.0M, operating cash flow of $111.4M, and free cash flow of $111.4M (-33.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, KALU closed FY2025 with $2.56B in total assets against $1.06B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.70, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$3.37B	$113.0M	$111.4M	$111.4M	$2.56B	$1.06B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$3.02B	$47.0M	$167.1M	$167.1M	$2.41B	$1.04B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$3.09B	$47.0M	$211.9M	$211.9M	—	—

3. KALU Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is KALU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (NASDAQ: KALU) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $119.83 (-0.84% 1D, market cap $1.96B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, KALU ranks #132 in composite RQD confidence.

How does KALU compare to PRLB and HLIO in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), KALU carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.3x, gross margin of 13.1%, and ROIC of 7.9%. By comparison, PRLB (Proto Labs Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 87.4x, ROIC 3.5%, cap $1.86B) and HLIO (Helios Technologies Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 46.5x, ROIC 4.7%, cap $2.25B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KALU leads on earnings multiple (17.3x) while KALU leads on capital efficiency (7.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KALU?

Per KALU's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000811596), Kaiser Aluminum Corporation generated $3.37B in revenue (+11.5% YoY), $113.0M in net income, and $111.4M in free cash flow against $2.56B in total assets and $1.06B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is KALU trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

KALU last traded at $119.83 (-0.84% on volume of 495,391 shares), positioning the stock -19.32% below its 50-day simple moving average ($148.52) and -21.85% below its 200-day simple moving average ($153.33). Across its 52-week range of $88.00 to $199.89, KALU sits at the 28.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.2% ($107.61 to $132.05).

KALU Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), KALU converted $3.4B of revenue into a 13.1% gross margin, 5.6% operating margin, and $111.4M in free cash flow (3.3% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: KALU RQD Cockpit KALU 12M Forecast KALU Earnings & Move KALU Dividends & DRIP KALU Insiders & 13F KALU Whale Options KALU Profit Sankey KALU News & Why