Stock Ratings / Financials / IVR / forecast

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INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$5.44 -0.18% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.43

INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $593.5M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on IVR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is IVR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (NYSE: IVR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $5.44 (-0.18% 1D, market cap $593.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, IVR ranks #789 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does IVR compare to ABR and PMT in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), IVR carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.7%. By comparison, ABR (Arbor Realty Trust) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 5.6%, cap $563.4M) and PMT (PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust of) posts a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E 7.5x, ROIC 4.6%, cap $643.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADAM leads on earnings multiple (4.4x) while IVR leads on capital efficiency (12.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IVR?

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Per IVR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001437071), INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC generated $0 in revenue, $101.3M in net income, and $157.1M in free cash flow against $6.48B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.43 (-0.22%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 3.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for IVR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY IVR SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$5.64-7.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$5.24+5.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$5.53-1.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D$5.44-6.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (54) → D (46)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a IVR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While IVR currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.25) and Max Pain ($5.71) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.97.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $IVR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “IVR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your IVR Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $5.44: 1838.2 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $4.02

$7,390

$-2,610 (-26.1%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $5.15

$9,467

$-533 (-5.3%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $9.97

$18,327

+$8,327 (+83.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$5	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$9	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$5	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring IVR)

✓Walkthrough of IVR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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IVR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -32.51%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $5.45H $5.45L $5.44C $5.44VOL 3.67M

RES: $8.11SUP: $4.94SMA50: $6.25SMA200: $7.65

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

IVR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 IVR Butterfly Map → + Track IVR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-11.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on IVR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for IVR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for IVR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (IVR)

Financials Rank #789 of 1096 ⚔️ ABR vs IVR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (IVR vs. ABR, PMT, ADAM, PSTL)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) ranks #789 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #669 by equity capitalization ($593.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ADAM leads on earnings valuation at 4.4x trailing P/E, while IVR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.7% ROIC and — gross margin. PSTL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with IVR at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
IVR ACTIVE INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC	D	46/100	5.9x	—	12.7%	-0.18%	$593.5M	Benchmark Subject
ABR Arbor Realty Trust	D-	38/100	—	—	5.6%	+2.37%	$563.4M	/abr-vs-ivr →
PMT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust of	E	34/100	7.5x	—	4.6%	+1.51%	$643.6M	/pmt-vs-ivr →
ADAM Adamas Trust Inc.	D+	52/100	4.4x	—	8.9%	-7.71%	$648.4M	/adam-vs-ivr →
PSTL Postal Realty Trust Inc. (Class A)	C-	61/100	46.4x	—	9.6%	+1.93%	$656.4M	/pstl-vs-ivr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001437071

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $101.3M, operating cash flow of $157.1M, and free cash flow of $157.1M (-14.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, IVR closed FY2025 with $6.48B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$101.3M	$157.1M	$157.1M	$6.48B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$59.9M	$183.2M	$183.2M	$5.69B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$15.9M	$237.8M	$237.8M	—	—

3. IVR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is IVR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does IVR compare to ABR and PMT in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IVR?

Where is IVR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

IVR last traded at $5.44 (-0.18% on volume of 3,669,711 shares), positioning the stock -12.96% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.25) and -28.89% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.65). Across its 52-week range of $5.22 to $9.50, IVR sits at the 5.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.4% ($5.09 to $5.79).

IVR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is IVR's 12-month stock price target?

INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC (IVR) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $5.15 (-5.3% from $5.44), with a bull-case target of $9.97 and a bear-case floor of $4.02.

Is IVR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates IVR D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 46/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: IVR RQD Cockpit IVR 12M Forecast IVR Earnings & Move IVR Dividends & DRIP IVR Insiders & 13F IVR Whale Options IVR Profit Sankey IVR News & Why