MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why HZO Stock advanced +0.17% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$52.59 +0.17% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $52.51
MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $1.16B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $52.51 (-0.16%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 0.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HZO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HZO SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (26% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 99% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 68.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (22% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.5% FCF Margin ($11.9M FCF) & 32.5% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$52.37+0% Next Q
42
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$52.37+0.4% Next Q
45
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$52.59+0% Next Q
47
CurrentGrade D$52.59-1.4% Hist 90D α
50
Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HZO Turnaround Squeeze
While HZO currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($52.33) and Max Pain ($55.22) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $59.83.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HZO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HZO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why HZO Stock advanced +0.17% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) advanced +0.17% to $52.59, trading at 99% of its 52-week range ($21.42 – $52.76). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (2% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 99% of its 52-week range ($21.42 – $52.76) with RSI-14 at 68.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±1.8% around $52.59 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 32.5% gross margin and $11.9M annual free cash flow.
Live HZO Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HZO)
- ✓Walkthrough of HZO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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HZO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +82.99%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $52.50H $52.76L $52.50C $52.59VOL 987.6K
RES: $52.50SUP: $51.95SMA50: $52.33SMA200: $37.36
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
HZO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
13.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -5.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HZO today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HZO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HZO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HZO)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #639 of 1011
⚔️ AAP vs HZO Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HZO vs. AAP, ONEW, PRTS, AZO)
Industry: Auto & Home Supply Stores (6 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) ranks #639 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #497 by equity capitalization ($1.16B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AZO leads on earnings valuation at 20.2x trailing P/E, while AZO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 55.8% ROIC and 52.6% gross margin. AZO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with HZO at 50/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HZO
ACTIVE
MarineMax Inc. (FL) | D | 50/100 | — | 32.5% | 2.4% | +0.17% | $1.16B | Benchmark Subject |
| AAP Advance Auto Parts Inc. | E | 28/100 | 62.8x | 43.4% | -1.4% | +0.31% | $2.76B | /aap-vs-hzo → |
| ONEW OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A) | D- | 38/100 | — | 22.8% | -11.2% | +1.48% | $159.7M | /onew-vs-hzo → |
| PRTS CarParts.com Inc. | D- | 35/100 | — | 32.8% | -35.0% | +5.25% | $69.5M | /prts-vs-hzo → |
| AZO AutoZone Inc. | C+ | 67/100 | 20.2x | 52.6% | 55.8% | -0.62% | $50.49B | /azo-vs-hzo → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001057060In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) reported GAAP revenue of $2.31B (-5.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.43B , and -3.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$31.6M, operating cash flow of $72.8M, and free cash flow of $11.9M (+113.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, HZO closed FY2025 with $2.43B in total assets against $347.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.98, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-09-30 | $2.31B | -$31.6M | $72.8M | $11.9M | $2.43B | $347.5M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-09-30 | $2.43B | $38.1M | -$25.7M | -$86.1M | $2.63B | $347.3M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-09-30 | $2.39B | $109.3M | -$222.2M | -$222.2M | — | — |
3. HZO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs HZO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, MarineMax Inc. (FL) (NYSE: HZO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $52.59 (+0.17% 1D, market cap $1.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HZO ranks #639 in composite RQD confidence.
How does HZO compare to AAP and ONEW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto & Home Supply Stores), HZO carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 32.5%, and ROIC of 2.4%. By comparison, AAP (Advance Auto Parts Inc.) holds a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E 62.8x, ROIC -1.4%, cap $2.76B) and ONEW (OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.2%, cap $159.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AZO leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while AZO leads on capital efficiency (55.8% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HZO?
Per HZO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001057060), MarineMax Inc. (FL) generated $2.31B in revenue (-5.0% YoY), -$31.6M in net income, and $11.9M in free cash flow against $2.43B in total assets and $347.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is HZO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
HZO last traded at $52.59 (+0.17% on volume of 351,177 shares), positioning the stock +0.50% above its 50-day simple moving average ($52.33) and +40.77% above its 200-day simple moving average ($37.36). Across its 52-week range of $21.42 to $52.76, HZO sits at the 99.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 68.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($51.64 to $53.54).
HZO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is HZO stock moving today?
Why HZO Stock advanced +0.17% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (2% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.