Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / HZO / earnings

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MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±1.8% Move

$52.59 +0.17% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $52.51

MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.16B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $52.51 (-0.16%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 0.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

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Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HZO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HZO SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 99% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 68.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.5% FCF Margin ($11.9M FCF) & 32.5% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$52.37+0% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$52.37+0.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$52.59+0% Next Q

Current

Grade D$52.59-1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HZO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HZO currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($52.33) and Max Pain ($55.22) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $59.83.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HZO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HZO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 29, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±1.8% Swing Band

±$0.95 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

HZO Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 50/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: -5%

Model Bullish Setup (50/100)Model Risk Weight (50/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-09-30	$2.31B	-$31.6M	$11.9M	32.5%
FY 2024	2024-09-30	$2.43B	$38.1M	-$86.1M	33%
FY 2023	2023-09-30	$2.39B	$109.3M	-$222.2M	32.5%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HZO)

✓Walkthrough of HZO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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HZO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +82.99%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $52.50H $52.76L $52.50C $52.59VOL 987.6K

RES: $52.50SUP: $51.95SMA50: $52.33SMA200: $37.36

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HZO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HZO Butterfly Map → + Track HZO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

13.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -5.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HZO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HZO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HZO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HZO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #639 of 1011 ⚔️ AAP vs HZO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HZO vs. AAP, ONEW, PRTS, AZO)

Industry: Auto & Home Supply Stores (6 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) ranks #639 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #497 by equity capitalization ($1.16B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AZO leads on earnings valuation at 20.2x trailing P/E, while AZO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 55.8% ROIC and 52.6% gross margin. AZO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with HZO at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HZO ACTIVE MarineMax Inc. (FL)	D	50/100	—	32.5%	2.4%	+0.17%	$1.16B	Benchmark Subject
AAP Advance Auto Parts Inc.	E	28/100	62.8x	43.4%	-1.4%	+0.31%	$2.76B	/aap-vs-hzo →
ONEW OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A)	D-	38/100	—	22.8%	-11.2%	+1.48%	$159.7M	/onew-vs-hzo →
PRTS CarParts.com Inc.	D-	35/100	—	32.8%	-35.0%	+5.25%	$69.5M	/prts-vs-hzo →
AZO AutoZone Inc.	C+	67/100	20.2x	52.6%	55.8%	-0.62%	$50.49B	/azo-vs-hzo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001057060

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) reported GAAP revenue of $2.31B (-5.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.43B , and -3.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$31.6M, operating cash flow of $72.8M, and free cash flow of $11.9M (+113.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, HZO closed FY2025 with $2.43B in total assets against $347.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.98, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$2.31B	-$31.6M	$72.8M	$11.9M	$2.43B	$347.5M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$2.43B	$38.1M	-$25.7M	-$86.1M	$2.63B	$347.3M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$2.39B	$109.3M	-$222.2M	-$222.2M	—	—

3. HZO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HZO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, MarineMax Inc. (FL) (NYSE: HZO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $52.59 (+0.17% 1D, market cap $1.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HZO ranks #639 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HZO compare to AAP and ONEW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto & Home Supply Stores), HZO carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 32.5%, and ROIC of 2.4%. By comparison, AAP (Advance Auto Parts Inc.) holds a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E 62.8x, ROIC -1.4%, cap $2.76B) and ONEW (OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.2%, cap $159.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AZO leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while AZO leads on capital efficiency (55.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HZO?

Per HZO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001057060), MarineMax Inc. (FL) generated $2.31B in revenue (-5.0% YoY), -$31.6M in net income, and $11.9M in free cash flow against $2.43B in total assets and $347.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HZO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HZO last traded at $52.59 (+0.17% on volume of 351,177 shares), positioning the stock +0.50% above its 50-day simple moving average ($52.33) and +40.77% above its 200-day simple moving average ($37.36). Across its 52-week range of $21.42 to $52.76, HZO sits at the 99.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 68.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($51.64 to $53.54).

HZO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is HZO's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 29, 2026.

How much is HZO stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±1.8% event move for HZO, spanning a range between $51.64 and $53.54.

Direct Sub-Reports: HZO RQD Cockpit HZO 12M Forecast HZO Earnings & Move HZO Dividends & DRIP HZO Insiders & 13F HZO Whale Options HZO Profit Sankey HZO News & Why