Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / HZO / financials

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MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$52.59 +0.17% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $52.51

MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.16B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $52.51 (-0.16%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 0.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

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Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HZO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HZO SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 99% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 68.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.5% FCF Margin ($11.9M FCF) & 32.5% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$52.37+0% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$52.37+0.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$52.59+0% Next Q

Current

Grade D$52.59-1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HZO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HZO currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($52.33) and Max Pain ($55.22) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $59.83.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HZO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HZO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How HZO Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$11.9M (0.5% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $2.39B

FY24

Rev $2.43B

FY25

Rev $2.31B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$2.31B	32.5%	1.5%	-$31.6M	$11.9M	2.4%
FY 2024	$2.43B	33%	5.3%	$38.1M	-$86.1M	8.5%
FY 2023	$2.39B	32.5%	8.4%	$109.3M	-$222.2M	2.4%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HZO)

✓Walkthrough of HZO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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HZO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +82.99%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $52.50H $52.76L $52.50C $52.59VOL 987.6K

RES: $52.50SUP: $51.95SMA50: $52.33SMA200: $37.36

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HZO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HZO Butterfly Map → + Track HZO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

13.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -5.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HZO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HZO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HZO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HZO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #639 of 1011 ⚔️ AAP vs HZO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HZO vs. AAP, ONEW, PRTS, AZO)

Industry: Auto & Home Supply Stores (6 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) ranks #639 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #497 by equity capitalization ($1.16B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AZO leads on earnings valuation at 20.2x trailing P/E, while AZO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 55.8% ROIC and 52.6% gross margin. AZO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with HZO at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HZO ACTIVE MarineMax Inc. (FL)	D	50/100	—	32.5%	2.4%	+0.17%	$1.16B	Benchmark Subject
AAP Advance Auto Parts Inc.	E	28/100	62.8x	43.4%	-1.4%	+0.31%	$2.76B	/aap-vs-hzo →
ONEW OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A)	D-	38/100	—	22.8%	-11.2%	+1.48%	$159.7M	/onew-vs-hzo →
PRTS CarParts.com Inc.	D-	35/100	—	32.8%	-35.0%	+5.25%	$69.5M	/prts-vs-hzo →
AZO AutoZone Inc.	C+	67/100	20.2x	52.6%	55.8%	-0.62%	$50.49B	/azo-vs-hzo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001057060

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) reported GAAP revenue of $2.31B (-5.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.43B , and -3.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$31.6M, operating cash flow of $72.8M, and free cash flow of $11.9M (+113.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, HZO closed FY2025 with $2.43B in total assets against $347.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.98, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$2.31B	-$31.6M	$72.8M	$11.9M	$2.43B	$347.5M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$2.43B	$38.1M	-$25.7M	-$86.1M	$2.63B	$347.3M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$2.39B	$109.3M	-$222.2M	-$222.2M	—	—

3. HZO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HZO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, MarineMax Inc. (FL) (NYSE: HZO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $52.59 (+0.17% 1D, market cap $1.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HZO ranks #639 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HZO compare to AAP and ONEW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto & Home Supply Stores), HZO carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 32.5%, and ROIC of 2.4%. By comparison, AAP (Advance Auto Parts Inc.) holds a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E 62.8x, ROIC -1.4%, cap $2.76B) and ONEW (OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.2%, cap $159.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AZO leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while AZO leads on capital efficiency (55.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HZO?

Per HZO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001057060), MarineMax Inc. (FL) generated $2.31B in revenue (-5.0% YoY), -$31.6M in net income, and $11.9M in free cash flow against $2.43B in total assets and $347.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HZO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HZO last traded at $52.59 (+0.17% on volume of 351,177 shares), positioning the stock +0.50% above its 50-day simple moving average ($52.33) and +40.77% above its 200-day simple moving average ($37.36). Across its 52-week range of $21.42 to $52.76, HZO sits at the 99.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 68.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($51.64 to $53.54).

HZO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), HZO converted $2.3B of revenue into a 32.5% gross margin, 1.5% operating margin, and $11.9M in free cash flow (0.5% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: HZO RQD Cockpit HZO 12M Forecast HZO Earnings & Move HZO Dividends & DRIP HZO Insiders & 13F HZO Whale Options HZO Profit Sankey HZO News & Why