Stock Ratings / Industrials / HTLD / forecast

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Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$10.38 +1.87% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.40

Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $802.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.40 (+0.15%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HTLD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HTLD SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (30% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 35% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 35.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$11.12-1.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$10.95-7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$10.18+2% Next Q

Current

Grade D$10.38-6.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (52) → D (44)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HTLD Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HTLD currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.52) and Max Pain ($10.90) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $17.47.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HTLD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HTLD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your HTLD Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $10.38: 963.4 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $7.59

$7,312

$-2,688 (-26.9%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $9.73

$9,374

$-626 (-6.3%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $17.47

$16,830

+$6,830 (+68.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$10	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$16	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$9	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HTLD)

✓Walkthrough of HTLD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

HTLD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.42%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $10.34H $10.42L $10.11C $10.38VOL 626.5K

RES: $10.80SUP: $9.43SMA50: $11.52SMA200: $12.31

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HTLD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HTLD Butterfly Map → + Track HTLD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -23.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HTLD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HTLD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HTLD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HTLD)

Industrials Rank #350 of 485 ⚔️ CVLG vs HTLD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (HTLD vs. CVLG, MRTN, ULH, WERN)

Industry: Trucking Freight/Courier Services (19 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) ranks #350 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #268 by equity capitalization ($802.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MRTN leads on earnings valuation at 55.1x trailing P/E, while MRTN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 2.5% ROIC and — gross margin. MRTN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with HTLD at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HTLD ACTIVE Heartland Express Inc.	D	44/100	—	—	-5.1%	+1.87%	$802.7M	Benchmark Subject
CVLG Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A)	D	47/100	101.0x	—	0.4%	-0.52%	$731.4M	/cvlg-vs-htld →
MRTN Marten Transport Ltd.	C	65/100	55.1x	—	2.5%	+0.86%	$960.3M	/mrtn-vs-htld →
ULH Universal Logistics Holdings Inc.	D-	39/100	—	—	-4.2%	+2.23%	$459.3M	/ulh-vs-htld →
WERN Werner Enterprises Inc.	D	45/100	—	—	0.4%	+1.84%	$1.66B	/wern-vs-htld →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000799233

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) reported GAAP revenue of $805.7M (-23.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.05B , and -33.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$52.5M, operating cash flow of $89.3M, and free cash flow of -$66.9M (-292.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, HTLD closed FY2025 with $1.19B in total assets against $154.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$805.7M	-$52.5M	$89.3M	-$66.9M	$1.19B	$154.1M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.05B	-$29.7M	$144.3M	$34.8M	$1.33B	$191.7M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.21B	$14.8M	$165.3M	$165.3M	—	—

3. HTLD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HTLD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Heartland Express Inc. (NASDAQ: HTLD) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $10.38 (+1.87% 1D, market cap $802.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, HTLD ranks #350 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HTLD compare to CVLG and MRTN in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Trucking Freight/Courier Services), HTLD carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -5.1%. By comparison, CVLG (Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A)) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 101.0x, ROIC 0.4%, cap $731.4M) and MRTN (Marten Transport Ltd.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 55.1x, ROIC 2.5%, cap $960.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MRTN leads on earnings multiple (55.1x) while MRTN leads on capital efficiency (2.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HTLD?

Per HTLD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000799233), Heartland Express Inc. generated $805.7M in revenue (-23.1% YoY), -$52.5M in net income, and -$66.9M in free cash flow against $1.19B in total assets and $154.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HTLD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HTLD last traded at $10.38 (+1.87% on volume of 788,964 shares), positioning the stock -9.90% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.52) and -15.68% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.31). Across its 52-week range of $7.00 to $16.64, HTLD sits at the 35.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.5% ($9.50 to $11.26).

HTLD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is HTLD's 12-month stock price target?

Heartland Express Inc. (HTLD) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $9.73 (-6.3% from $10.38), with a bull-case target of $17.47 and a bear-case floor of $7.59.

Is HTLD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates HTLD D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 44/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: HTLD RQD Cockpit HTLD 12M Forecast HTLD Earnings & Move HTLD Dividends & DRIP HTLD Insiders & 13F HTLD Whale Options HTLD Profit Sankey HTLD News & Why