MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why HNRG Stock slipped -1.35% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$11.73 -1.35% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.68
Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $553.0M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.68 (-0.43%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 2.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HNRG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HNRG SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (28% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (23% of score)
Altman Z-Score 2.75 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B-$13.92-15.9% Next Q
69
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B-$11.71-5.6% Next Q
66
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C+$11.05+6.2% Next Q
64
CurrentGrade C-$11.73+0.5% Hist 90D α
61
Trajectory: B- (69) → C- (61)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HNRG Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, HNRG faces multiple-compression risk if 13.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($14.22) or 200D SMA ($16.53) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($11.89) toward Bear Floor ($9.27).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HNRG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HNRG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why HNRG Stock slipped -1.35% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) slipped -1.35% to $11.73, trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($10.69 – $24.7). Solid steady margins (27% return on capital), mixed timing at 13x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($10.69 – $24.7) with RSI-14 at 35.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $11.73 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C- (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $11.9M annual free cash flow.
Live HNRG Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (HNRG Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
HNRG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.47%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $11.25H $11.73L $10.69C $11.73VOL 828.2K
RES: $15.53SUP: $9.75SMA50: $14.22SMA200: $16.53
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
HNRG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
4.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +16.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HNRG today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HNRG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HNRG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HNRG)
Utilities Rank #30 of 117
⚔️ NNE vs HNRG Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (HNRG vs. NNE, GFUZ, EDN, ELLO)
Industry: Electric Utilities: Central (56 Tracked Issuers)Across 117 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) ranks #30 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #87 by equity capitalization ($553.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HNRG leads on earnings valuation at 13.2x trailing P/E, while HNRG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 26.9% ROIC and — gross margin. HNRG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 61/100 (C-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNRG
ACTIVE
Hallador Energy Company | C- | 61/100 | 13.2x | — | 26.9% | -1.35% | $553.0M | Benchmark Subject |
| NNE Nano Nuclear Energy Inc. | E | 34/100 | — | — | -6.7% | -1.45% | $655.7M | /nne-vs-hnrg → |
| GFUZ General Fusion Group Ltd. | D | 44/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +7.25% | $413.7M | /gfuz-vs-hnrg → |
| EDN Empresa Distribuidora Y Comercializadora Norte S.A. (Edenor) | D+ | 57/100 | — | — | — | -2.17% | $753.7M | /edn-vs-hnrg → |
| ELLO Ellomay Capital Ltd (Israel) | D | 49/100 | — | — | — | -9.22% | $289.0M | /ello-vs-hnrg → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000788965In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) reported GAAP revenue of $469.5M (+16.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $404.2M , and -26.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $41.9M, operating cash flow of $81.1M, and free cash flow of $11.9M (-5.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, HNRG closed FY2025 with $408.1M in total assets against $29.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.75, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $469.5M | $41.9M | $81.1M | $11.9M | $408.1M | $29.7M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $404.2M | -$226.1M | $65.9M | $12.6M | $369.1M | $37.4M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $634.9M | $44.8M | $59.4M | $59.4M | — | — |
3. HNRG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs HNRG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Hallador Energy Company (NASDAQ: HNRG) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $11.73 (-1.35% 1D, market cap $553.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, HNRG ranks #30 in composite RQD confidence.
How does HNRG compare to NNE and GFUZ in the Utilities sector?
Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), HNRG carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 26.9%. By comparison, NNE (Nano Nuclear Energy Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -6.7%, cap $655.7M) and GFUZ (General Fusion Group Ltd.) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $413.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, HNRG leads on earnings multiple (13.2x) while HNRG leads on capital efficiency (26.9% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HNRG?
Per HNRG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000788965), Hallador Energy Company generated $469.5M in revenue (+16.2% YoY), $41.9M in net income, and $11.9M in free cash flow against $408.1M in total assets and $29.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is HNRG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
HNRG last traded at $11.73 (-1.35% on volume of 505,461 shares), positioning the stock -17.51% below its 50-day simple moving average ($14.22) and -29.04% below its 200-day simple moving average ($16.53). Across its 52-week range of $10.69 to $24.70, HNRG sits at the 7.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($10.26 to $13.20).
HNRG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is HNRG stock moving today?
Why HNRG Stock slipped -1.35% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (27% return on capital), mixed timing at 13x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.