Stock Ratings / Utilities / HNRG / financials

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Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$11.73 -1.35% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.68

Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $553.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.68 (-0.43%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 2.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HNRG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HNRG SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.75 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$13.92-15.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$11.71-5.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$11.05+6.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$11.73+0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (69) → C- (61)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HNRG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, HNRG faces multiple-compression risk if 13.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($14.22) or 200D SMA ($16.53) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($11.89) toward Bear Floor ($9.27).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HNRG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HNRG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 61%NO 39%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How HNRG Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$11.9M (2.5% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $634.9M

FY24

Rev $404.2M

FY25

Rev $469.5M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$469.5M	52%	13%	$41.9M	$11.9M	26.9%
FY 2024	$404.2M	52%	-54%	-$226.1M	$12.6M	-45%
FY 2023	$634.9M	52%	10.2%	$44.8M	$59.4M	26.9%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HNRG)

✓Walkthrough of HNRG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

HNRG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.47%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $11.25H $11.73L $10.69C $11.73VOL 828.2K

RES: $15.53SUP: $9.75SMA50: $14.22SMA200: $16.53

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HNRG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HNRG Butterfly Map → + Track HNRG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

4.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +16.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HNRG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HNRG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HNRG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HNRG)

Utilities Rank #30 of 117 ⚔️ NNE vs HNRG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (HNRG vs. NNE, GFUZ, EDN, ELLO)

Industry: Electric Utilities: Central (56 Tracked Issuers)

Across 117 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) ranks #30 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #87 by equity capitalization ($553.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HNRG leads on earnings valuation at 13.2x trailing P/E, while HNRG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 26.9% ROIC and — gross margin. HNRG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HNRG ACTIVE Hallador Energy Company	C-	61/100	13.2x	—	26.9%	-1.35%	$553.0M	Benchmark Subject
NNE Nano Nuclear Energy Inc.	E	34/100	—	—	-6.7%	-1.45%	$655.7M	/nne-vs-hnrg →
GFUZ General Fusion Group Ltd.	D	44/100	—	—	-35.0%	+7.25%	$413.7M	/gfuz-vs-hnrg →
EDN Empresa Distribuidora Y Comercializadora Norte S.A. (Edenor)	D+	57/100	—	—	—	-2.17%	$753.7M	/edn-vs-hnrg →
ELLO Ellomay Capital Ltd (Israel)	D	49/100	—	—	—	-9.22%	$289.0M	/ello-vs-hnrg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000788965

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hallador Energy Company (HNRG) reported GAAP revenue of $469.5M (+16.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $404.2M , and -26.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $41.9M, operating cash flow of $81.1M, and free cash flow of $11.9M (-5.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, HNRG closed FY2025 with $408.1M in total assets against $29.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.75, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$469.5M	$41.9M	$81.1M	$11.9M	$408.1M	$29.7M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$404.2M	-$226.1M	$65.9M	$12.6M	$369.1M	$37.4M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$634.9M	$44.8M	$59.4M	$59.4M	—	—

3. HNRG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HNRG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Hallador Energy Company (NASDAQ: HNRG) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $11.73 (-1.35% 1D, market cap $553.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, HNRG ranks #30 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HNRG compare to NNE and GFUZ in the Utilities sector?

Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), HNRG carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 26.9%. By comparison, NNE (Nano Nuclear Energy Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -6.7%, cap $655.7M) and GFUZ (General Fusion Group Ltd.) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $413.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, HNRG leads on earnings multiple (13.2x) while HNRG leads on capital efficiency (26.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HNRG?

Per HNRG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000788965), Hallador Energy Company generated $469.5M in revenue (+16.2% YoY), $41.9M in net income, and $11.9M in free cash flow against $408.1M in total assets and $29.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HNRG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HNRG last traded at $11.73 (-1.35% on volume of 505,461 shares), positioning the stock -17.51% below its 50-day simple moving average ($14.22) and -29.04% below its 200-day simple moving average ($16.53). Across its 52-week range of $10.69 to $24.70, HNRG sits at the 7.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($10.26 to $13.20).

HNRG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Hallador Energy Company (HNRG)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), HNRG converted $469.5M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 13% operating margin, and $11.9M in free cash flow (2.5% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: HNRG RQD Cockpit HNRG 12M Forecast HNRG Earnings & Move HNRG Dividends & DRIP HNRG Insiders & 13F HNRG Whale Options HNRG Profit Sankey HNRG News & Why