RISK WATCHYahoo • 2d ago
Here's What to Expect From Horace Mann Educators' Q3 EarningsHorace Mann's Q3 revenues are expected to rise 1.3%, but earnings may fall 27.2% as claims costs and catastrophe-loss comparisons loom.
Why HMN Stock advanced +1.79% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$46.62 +1.79% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $46.68
Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $1.89B
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Is HMN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Horace Mann Educators Corporation (NYSE: HMN) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $46.62 (+1.79% 1D, market cap $1.89B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, HMN ranks #456 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does HMN compare to KMPR and PLGO in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), HMN carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.9%. By comparison, KMPR (Kemper Corporation) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 13.4x, ROIC 5.3%, cap $1.92B) and PLGO (Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.26B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HMN leads on earnings multiple (11.6x) while UFCS leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HMN?
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Per HMN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000850141), Horace Mann Educators Corporation generated $1.70B in revenue (+6.7% YoY), $162.1M in net income, and $553.2M in free cash flow against $15.27B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $46.68 (+0.13%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 32.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HMN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HMN SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (25% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 32.5% FCF Margin ($553.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (51) create a -10 pt regime headwind
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$45.56+1.7% Next Q
53
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$46.33-0.1% Next Q
56
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$46.30+0.7% Next Q
58
CurrentGrade C-$46.62+0.5% Hist 90D α
61
Trajectory: C- (53) → C- (61)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HMN Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, HMN faces multiple-compression risk if 11.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($47.73) or 200D SMA ($46.89) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($47.25) toward Bear Floor ($36.86).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HMN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HMN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why HMN Stock advanced +1.79% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) advanced +1.79% to $46.62, trading at 37% of its 52-week range ($41.29 – $55.56). Solid steady margins (11% return on capital), mixed timing at 12x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 37% of its 52-week range ($41.29 – $55.56) with RSI-14 at 51 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±3.9% around $46.62 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C- (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $553.2M annual free cash flow.
Live HMN Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTYahoo • 3d ago
Horace Mann and MagicSchool Partner to Help Educators Save Time with Responsible AI ToolsSPRINGFIELD, Ill., October 29, 2026--Horace Mann (NYSE: HMN) and MagicSchool announced a strategic partnership to help educators reclaim valuable time and focus more on students by expanding access to practical, responsi
MARKET WIREYahoo • 9d ago
3 insurance stocks walking a fine lineInsurance firms play a critical role in the financial system, offering everything from property coverage to life insurance and specialized risk solutions. Furthermore, favorable market conditions have supported premium g
CATALYSTYahoo • 13d ago
Horace Mann (HMN) Could Be a Great ChoiceDividends are one of the best benefits to being a shareholder, but finding a great dividend stock is no easy task. Does Horace Mann (HMN) have what it takes? Let's find out.
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (HMN Tape Review)
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HMN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.60%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $47.19H $47.19L $46.53C $46.62VOL 298.4K
RES: $49.90SUP: $44.11SMA50: $47.73SMA200: $46.89
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
HMN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
1.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HMN today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HMN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HMN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HMN)
Financials Rank #456 of 1096
⚔️ KMPR vs HMN Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HMN vs. KMPR, PLGO, SAFT, UFCS)
Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) ranks #456 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #434 by equity capitalization ($1.89B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HMN leads on earnings valuation at 11.6x trailing P/E, while UFCS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.6% ROIC and — gross margin. UFCS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with HMN at 61/100 (C-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMN
ACTIVE
Horace Mann Educators Corporation | C- | 61/100 | 11.6x | — | 10.9% | +1.79% | $1.89B | Benchmark Subject |
| KMPR Kemper Corporation | C+ | 67/100 | 13.4x | — | 5.3% | +10.48% | $1.92B | /kmpr-vs-hmn → |
| PLGO Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited | D | 44/100 | — | — | — | +1.91% | $2.26B | /plgo-vs-hmn → |
| SAFT Safety Insurance Group Inc. | C | 64/100 | 15.4x | — | 11.1% | 0.00% | $1.53B | /saft-vs-hmn → |
| UFCS United Fire Group Inc. | B- | 70/100 | 12.4x | — | 12.6% | +1.19% | $1.46B | /ufcs-vs-hmn → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000850141In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) reported GAAP revenue of $1.70B (+6.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.60B , and +14.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $162.1M, operating cash flow of $553.2M, and free cash flow of $553.2M (+22.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, HMN closed FY2025 with $15.27B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $1.70B | $162.1M | $553.2M | $553.2M | $15.27B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $1.60B | $102.8M | $452.1M | $452.1M | $14.49B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $1.49B | $45.0M | $302.1M | $302.1M | — | — |
3. HMN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs HMN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Horace Mann Educators Corporation (NYSE: HMN) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $46.62 (+1.79% 1D, market cap $1.89B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, HMN ranks #456 in composite RQD confidence.
How does HMN compare to KMPR and PLGO in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), HMN carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.9%. By comparison, KMPR (Kemper Corporation) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 13.4x, ROIC 5.3%, cap $1.92B) and PLGO (Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.26B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HMN leads on earnings multiple (11.6x) while UFCS leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HMN?
Per HMN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000850141), Horace Mann Educators Corporation generated $1.70B in revenue (+6.7% YoY), $162.1M in net income, and $553.2M in free cash flow against $15.27B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is HMN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
HMN last traded at $46.62 (+1.79% on volume of 200,418 shares), positioning the stock -2.33% below its 50-day simple moving average ($47.73) and -0.58% below its 200-day simple moving average ($46.89). Across its 52-week range of $41.29 to $55.56, HMN sits at the 37.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.9% ($44.80 to $48.44).
HMN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is HMN stock moving today?
Why HMN Stock advanced +1.79% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (11% return on capital), mixed timing at 12x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.