Stock Ratings / Financials / HMN / earnings

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Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±3.9% Move

$46.62 +1.79% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $46.68

Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.89B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HMN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HMN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Horace Mann Educators Corporation (NYSE: HMN) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $46.62 (+1.79% 1D, market cap $1.89B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, HMN ranks #456 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HMN compare to KMPR and PLGO in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), HMN carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.9%. By comparison, KMPR (Kemper Corporation) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 13.4x, ROIC 5.3%, cap $1.92B) and PLGO (Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.26B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HMN leads on earnings multiple (11.6x) while UFCS leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HMN?

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Per HMN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000850141), Horace Mann Educators Corporation generated $1.70B in revenue (+6.7% YoY), $162.1M in net income, and $553.2M in free cash flow against $15.27B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $46.68 (+0.13%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 32.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HMN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HMN SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 32.5% FCF Margin ($553.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (51) create a -10 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$45.56+1.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$46.33-0.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$46.30+0.7% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$46.62+0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → C- (61)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HMN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, HMN faces multiple-compression risk if 11.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($47.73) or 200D SMA ($46.89) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($47.25) toward Bear Floor ($36.86).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HMN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HMN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 61%NO 39%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±3.9% Swing Band

±$1.82 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

HMN Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 61/100

Trailing EPS: $4.00 • YoY Revenue Growth: 6.7%

Model Bullish Setup (61/100)Model Risk Weight (39/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$1.70B	$162.1M	$553.2M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$1.60B	$102.8M	$452.1M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$1.49B	$45.0M	$302.1M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating HMN & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on HMN
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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HMN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.60%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $47.19H $47.19L $46.53C $46.62VOL 298.4K

RES: $49.90SUP: $44.11SMA50: $47.73SMA200: $46.89

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HMN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HMN Butterfly Map → + Track HMN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

1.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HMN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HMN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HMN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HMN)

Financials Rank #456 of 1096 ⚔️ KMPR vs HMN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HMN vs. KMPR, PLGO, SAFT, UFCS)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) ranks #456 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #434 by equity capitalization ($1.89B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HMN leads on earnings valuation at 11.6x trailing P/E, while UFCS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.6% ROIC and — gross margin. UFCS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with HMN at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HMN ACTIVE Horace Mann Educators Corporation	C-	61/100	11.6x	—	10.9%	+1.79%	$1.89B	Benchmark Subject
KMPR Kemper Corporation	C+	67/100	13.4x	—	5.3%	+10.48%	$1.92B	/kmpr-vs-hmn →
PLGO Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited	D	44/100	—	—	—	+1.91%	$2.26B	/plgo-vs-hmn →
SAFT Safety Insurance Group Inc.	C	64/100	15.4x	—	11.1%	0.00%	$1.53B	/saft-vs-hmn →
UFCS United Fire Group Inc.	B-	70/100	12.4x	—	12.6%	+1.19%	$1.46B	/ufcs-vs-hmn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000850141

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) reported GAAP revenue of $1.70B (+6.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.60B , and +14.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $162.1M, operating cash flow of $553.2M, and free cash flow of $553.2M (+22.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, HMN closed FY2025 with $15.27B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.70B	$162.1M	$553.2M	$553.2M	$15.27B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.60B	$102.8M	$452.1M	$452.1M	$14.49B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.49B	$45.0M	$302.1M	$302.1M	—	—

3. HMN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HMN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does HMN compare to KMPR and PLGO in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HMN?

Where is HMN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HMN last traded at $46.62 (+1.79% on volume of 200,418 shares), positioning the stock -2.33% below its 50-day simple moving average ($47.73) and -0.58% below its 200-day simple moving average ($46.89). Across its 52-week range of $41.29 to $55.56, HMN sits at the 37.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.9% ($44.80 to $48.44).