MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why HLP Stock Traded Steady Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$4.19 0.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.18
Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $313.2M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.18 (-0.19%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 3.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk A-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HLP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HLP SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (30% of score)
Altman Z-Score 13.76 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (25% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 95% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 83.6 (OVERBOUGHT (>70))
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 12.4% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$2.54+18.1% Next Q
53
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$3.00+17% Next Q
56
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$3.51+19.4% Next Q
58
CurrentGrade C-$4.19+0.5% Hist 90D α
61
Trajectory: C- (53) → C- (61)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HLP Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, HLP faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 30.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($2.28) or 200D SMA ($1.26) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($4.25) toward Bear Floor ($3.31).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HLP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HLP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why HLP Stock Traded Steady Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) slipped 0.00% to $4.19, trading at 95% of its 52-week range ($0.34 – $4.4). Solid 33% profit margin (3% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 95% of its 52-week range ($0.34 – $4.4) with RSI-14 at 83.6 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $4.19 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C- (Hold) backed by 32.5% gross margin and $660824 annual free cash flow.
Live HLP Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (HLP Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
HLP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +444.16%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $4.29H $4.40L $3.92C $4.19VOL 561.7K
RES: $1.71SUP: $1.71SMA50: $2.28SMA200: $1.26
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
HLP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +39.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HLP today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HLP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HLP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HLP)
Industrials Rank #157 of 485
⚔️ SES vs HLP Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (HLP vs. SES, CUB, ELVA, AZ)
Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) ranks #157 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #322 by equity capitalization ($313.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CUB leads on earnings valuation at 38.8x trailing P/E, while HLP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.4% ROIC and 32.5% gross margin. HLP currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 61/100 (C-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLP
ACTIVE
Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) | C- | 61/100 | — | 32.5% | 3.4% | 0.00% | $313.2M | Benchmark Subject |
| SES SES AI Corporation (Class A) | D- | 41/100 | — | 53.8% | -35.0% | +9.74% | $322.5M | /ses-vs-hlp → |
| CUB Lionheart Holdings (Class A) | D- | 40/100 | 38.8x | — | -4.0% | +0.09% | $347.5M | /cub-vs-hlp → |
| ELVA Electrovaya Inc. | D+ | 58/100 | — | — | — | -2.09% | $281.5M | /elva-vs-hlp → |
| AZ A2Z Cust2Mate Solutions Corp. | D+ | 52/100 | — | — | — | +0.81% | $278.6M | /az-vs-hlp → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001855557In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) reported GAAP revenue of $19.6M (+39.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $14.1M , and +22.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.9M, operating cash flow of $878.3K, and free cash flow of $660.8K (+248.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, HLP closed FY2025 with $72.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 13.76, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $19.6M | $1.9M | $878.3K | $660.8K | $72.2M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $14.1M | -$1.9M | -$414.0K | -$446.5K | $65.0M | $3.3M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $16.0M | $864.7K | $884.9K | $884.9K | — | — |
3. HLP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs HLP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: HLP) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $4.19 (0.00% 1D, market cap $313.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, HLP ranks #157 in composite RQD confidence.
How does HLP compare to SES and CUB in the Industrials sector?
Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), HLP carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 32.5%, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, SES (SES AI Corporation (Class A)) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $322.5M) and CUB (Lionheart Holdings (Class A)) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E 38.8x, ROIC -4.0%, cap $347.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CUB leads on earnings multiple (38.8x) while HLP leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HLP?
Per HLP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001855557), Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) generated $19.6M in revenue (+39.0% YoY), $1.9M in net income, and $660.8K in free cash flow against $72.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is HLP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
HLP last traded at $4.19 (0.00% on volume of 232,586 shares), positioning the stock +83.77% above its 50-day simple moving average ($2.28) and +232.54% above its 200-day simple moving average ($1.26). Across its 52-week range of $0.34 to $4.40, HLP sits at the 94.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 83.6 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($3.67 to $4.71).
HLP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is HLP stock moving today?
Why HLP Stock Traded Steady Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid 33% profit margin (3% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.