Stock Ratings / Industrials / HLP / forecast

SES (41) CUB (40) ELVA (58) AZ (52) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$4.19 0.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.18

Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $313.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.18 (-0.19%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 3.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk A-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HLP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HLP SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 13.76 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 95% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 83.6 (OVERBOUGHT (>70))

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 12.4% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$2.54+18.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$3.00+17% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$3.51+19.4% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$4.19+0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → C- (61)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HLP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, HLP faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 30.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($2.28) or 200D SMA ($1.26) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($4.25) toward Bear Floor ($3.31).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HLP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HLP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 61%NO 39%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your HLP Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $4.19: 2386.6 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $3.31

$7,900

$-2,100 (-21.0%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $4.25

$10,143

+$143 (+1.4%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $5.01

$11,957

+$1,957 (+19.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$4	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$5	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$4	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (HLP Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

HLP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +444.16%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $4.29H $4.40L $3.92C $4.19VOL 561.7K

RES: $1.71SUP: $1.71SMA50: $2.28SMA200: $1.26

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HLP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HLP Butterfly Map → + Track HLP →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +39.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HLP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HLP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HLP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HLP)

Industrials Rank #157 of 485 ⚔️ SES vs HLP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (HLP vs. SES, CUB, ELVA, AZ)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) ranks #157 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #322 by equity capitalization ($313.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CUB leads on earnings valuation at 38.8x trailing P/E, while HLP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.4% ROIC and 32.5% gross margin. HLP currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HLP ACTIVE Hongli Group Inc. (Class A)	C-	61/100	—	32.5%	3.4%	0.00%	$313.2M	Benchmark Subject
SES SES AI Corporation (Class A)	D-	41/100	—	53.8%	-35.0%	+9.74%	$322.5M	/ses-vs-hlp →
CUB Lionheart Holdings (Class A)	D-	40/100	38.8x	—	-4.0%	+0.09%	$347.5M	/cub-vs-hlp →
ELVA Electrovaya Inc.	D+	58/100	—	—	—	-2.09%	$281.5M	/elva-vs-hlp →
AZ A2Z Cust2Mate Solutions Corp.	D+	52/100	—	—	—	+0.81%	$278.6M	/az-vs-hlp →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001855557

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) reported GAAP revenue of $19.6M (+39.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $14.1M , and +22.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.9M, operating cash flow of $878.3K, and free cash flow of $660.8K (+248.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, HLP closed FY2025 with $72.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 13.76, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$19.6M	$1.9M	$878.3K	$660.8K	$72.2M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$14.1M	-$1.9M	-$414.0K	-$446.5K	$65.0M	$3.3M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$16.0M	$864.7K	$884.9K	$884.9K	—	—

3. HLP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HLP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: HLP) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $4.19 (0.00% 1D, market cap $313.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, HLP ranks #157 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HLP compare to SES and CUB in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), HLP carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 32.5%, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, SES (SES AI Corporation (Class A)) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $322.5M) and CUB (Lionheart Holdings (Class A)) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E 38.8x, ROIC -4.0%, cap $347.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CUB leads on earnings multiple (38.8x) while HLP leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HLP?

Per HLP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001855557), Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) generated $19.6M in revenue (+39.0% YoY), $1.9M in net income, and $660.8K in free cash flow against $72.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HLP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HLP last traded at $4.19 (0.00% on volume of 232,586 shares), positioning the stock +83.77% above its 50-day simple moving average ($2.28) and +232.54% above its 200-day simple moving average ($1.26). Across its 52-week range of $0.34 to $4.40, HLP sits at the 94.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 83.6 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($3.67 to $4.71).

HLP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is HLP's 12-month stock price target?

Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) (HLP) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $4.25 (+1.4% from $4.19), with a bull-case target of $5.01 and a bear-case floor of $3.31.

Is HLP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates HLP C- (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 61/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: HLP RQD Cockpit HLP 12M Forecast HLP Earnings & Move HLP Dividends & DRIP HLP Insiders & 13F HLP Whale Options HLP Profit Sankey HLP News & Why