Stock Ratings / Financials / HBT / financials

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HBT Financial Inc. (HBT) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$36.80 +1.10% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.96

HBT Financial Inc. (HBT) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 13% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $1.34B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.96 (+0.44%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 2.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HBT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HBT SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 94% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 55.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-8 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$34.95+1.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$35.58+1.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$36.24+1.5% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$36.80+6.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (62) → B- (70)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HBT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, HBT faces multiple-compression risk if 17.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($35.92) or 200D SMA ($31.21) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($38.79) toward Bear Floor ($30.18).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HBT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HBT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How HBT Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$85.1M (2.1% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $4.00B

FY24

Rev $4.00B

FY25

Rev $4.00B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$4.00B	52%	0%	$77.0M	$85.1M	12.5%
FY 2024	$4.00B	52%	0%	$71.8M	$89.4M	12.5%
FY 2023	$4.00B	52%	0%	$65.8M	$65.8M	12.5%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HBT)

✓Walkthrough of HBT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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HBT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +32.56%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $37.02H $37.14L $36.35C $36.80VOL 84.5K

RES: $37.73SUP: $34.55SMA50: $35.92SMA200: $31.21

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HBT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HBT Butterfly Map → + Track HBT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

10.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HBT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HBT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HBT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HBT)

Financials Rank #149 of 1096 ⚔️ FMBH vs HBT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HBT vs. FMBH, PEBO, CTBI, WABC)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, HBT Financial Inc. (HBT) ranks #149 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #510 by equity capitalization ($1.34B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WABC leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while HBT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.5% ROIC and — gross margin. PEBO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with HBT at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HBT ACTIVE HBT Financial Inc.	B-	70/100	17.4x	—	12.5%	+1.10%	$1.34B	Benchmark Subject
FMBH First Mid Bancshares Inc.	C	62/100	14.8x	—	9.6%	+1.21%	$1.36B	/fmbh-vs-hbt →
PEBO Peoples Bancorp Inc.	B	72/100	13.1x	—	10.5%	+1.09%	$1.39B	/pebo-vs-hbt →
CTBI Community Trust Bancorp Inc.	B-	70/100	13.0x	—	11.5%	+0.97%	$1.27B	/ctbi-vs-hbt →
WABC Westamerica Bancorporation	C	63/100	12.2x	—	12.4%	+0.79%	$1.42B	/wabc-vs-hbt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000775215

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), HBT Financial Inc. (HBT) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $77.0M, operating cash flow of $85.1M, and free cash flow of $85.1M (-4.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, HBT closed FY2025 with $5.07B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$77.0M	$85.1M	$85.1M	$5.07B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$71.8M	$89.4M	$89.4M	$5.03B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$65.8M	$65.8M	$65.8M	—	—

3. HBT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HBT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, HBT Financial Inc. (NASDAQ: HBT) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $36.80 (+1.10% 1D, market cap $1.34B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, HBT ranks #149 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HBT compare to FMBH and PEBO in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), HBT carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.5%. By comparison, FMBH (First Mid Bancshares Inc.) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 14.8x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $1.36B) and PEBO (Peoples Bancorp Inc.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 13.1x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $1.39B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WABC leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while HBT leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HBT?

Per HBT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000775215), HBT Financial Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $77.0M in net income, and $85.1M in free cash flow against $5.07B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HBT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HBT last traded at $36.80 (+1.10% on volume of 123,629 shares), positioning the stock +2.45% above its 50-day simple moving average ($35.92) and +17.91% above its 200-day simple moving average ($31.21). Across its 52-week range of $22.37 to $37.71, HBT sits at the 94.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.7% ($35.07 to $38.53).

HBT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is HBT Financial Inc. (HBT)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), HBT converted $4.0B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $85.1M in free cash flow (2.1% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: HBT RQD Cockpit HBT 12M Forecast HBT Earnings & Move HBT Dividends & DRIP HBT Insiders & 13F HBT Whale Options HBT Profit Sankey HBT News & Why