MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why GCBC Stock advanced +1.16% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$35.87 +1.16% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $35.88
Greene County Bancorp Inc. (GCBC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $610.7M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $35.88 (+0.02%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GCBC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GCBC SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (26% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$33.65+2.5% Next Q
50
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$34.48+3.3% Next Q
53
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$35.61+0.7% Next Q
55
CurrentGrade D+$35.87+0% Hist 90D α
58
Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the GCBC Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, GCBC faces multiple-compression risk if 19.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($34.85) or 200D SMA ($28.68) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($35.87) toward Bear Floor ($27.98).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GCBC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GCBC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why GCBC Stock advanced +1.16% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Greene County Bancorp Inc. (GCBC) advanced +1.16% to $35.87, trading at 91% of its 52-week range ($21.38 – $37.25). Stretched risk/reward at 20x P/E (12% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 91% of its 52-week range ($21.38 – $37.25) with RSI-14 at 58.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.9% around $35.87 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $27.3M annual free cash flow.
Live GCBC Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GCBC)
- ✓Walkthrough of GCBC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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GCBC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +49.15%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $35.07H $36.02L $35.07C $35.87VOL 27.3K
RES: $37.42SUP: $32.66SMA50: $34.85SMA200: $28.68
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
GCBC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
13.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GCBC today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GCBC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GCBC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GCBC)
Financials Rank #614 of 1096
⚔️ HIFS vs GCBC Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (GCBC vs. HIFS, TCBX, HBCP, SMBC)
Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Greene County Bancorp Inc. (GCBC) ranks #614 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #664 by equity capitalization ($610.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TCBX leads on earnings valuation at 10.2x trailing P/E, while TCBX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.5% ROIC and — gross margin. HBCP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with GCBC at 58/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GCBC
ACTIVE
Greene County Bancorp Inc. | D+ | 58/100 | 19.6x | — | 12.1% | +1.16% | $610.7M | Benchmark Subject |
| HIFS Hingham Institution for Savings | D | 51/100 | — | — | — | +1.22% | $657.3M | /hifs-vs-gcbc → |
| TCBX Third Coast Bancshares Inc. | C | 63/100 | 10.2x | — | 12.5% | +0.35% | $673.0M | /tcbx-vs-gcbc → |
| HBCP Home Bancorp Inc. | C+ | 66/100 | 10.5x | — | 10.6% | -0.11% | $483.0M | /hbcp-vs-gcbc → |
| SMBC Southern Missouri Bancorp Inc. | C | 63/100 | 13.5x | — | 10.3% | -0.25% | $791.2M | /smbc-vs-gcbc → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001070524In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Greene County Bancorp Inc. (GCBC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $31.1M, operating cash flow of $28.0M, and free cash flow of $27.3M (+16.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, GCBC closed FY2025 with $3.15B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-06-30 | $0 | $31.1M | $28.0M | $27.3M | $3.15B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-06-30 | $0 | $24.8M | $24.9M | $23.4M | $2.97B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-06-30 | $0 | $30.8M | $28.1M | $28.1M | — | — |
3. GCBC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs GCBC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Greene County Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: GCBC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $35.87 (+1.16% 1D, market cap $610.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, GCBC ranks #614 in composite RQD confidence.
How does GCBC compare to HIFS and TCBX in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Banks), GCBC carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 19.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.1%. By comparison, HIFS (Hingham Institution for Savings) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $657.3M) and TCBX (Third Coast Bancshares Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 10.2x, ROIC 12.5%, cap $673.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TCBX leads on earnings multiple (10.2x) while TCBX leads on capital efficiency (12.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GCBC?
Per GCBC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001070524), Greene County Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $31.1M in net income, and $27.3M in free cash flow against $3.15B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is GCBC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
GCBC last traded at $35.87 (+1.16% on volume of 27,705 shares), positioning the stock +2.93% above its 50-day simple moving average ($34.85) and +25.07% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.68). Across its 52-week range of $21.38 to $37.25, GCBC sits at the 91.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.9% ($34.11 to $37.63).
GCBC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is GCBC stock moving today?
Why GCBC Stock advanced +1.16% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 20x P/E (12% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.